Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aaafdd |
The influence of non-CO2 forcings on cumulative carbon emissions budgets | |
Tokarska, Katarzyna B.1,2; Gillett, Nathan P.3; Arora, Vivek K.3; Lee, Warren G.3; Zickfeld, Kirsten4 | |
2018-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 13期号:3 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Canada; Scotland |
英文摘要 | Carbon budgets provide a useful tool for policymakers to help meet the global climate targets, as they specify total allowable carbon emissions consistent with limiting warming to a given temperature threshold. Non-CO2 forcings have a net warming effect in the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios, leading to reductions in remaining carbon budgets based on CO2 forcing alone. Carbon budgets consistent with limiting warming to below 2.0 degrees C, with and without accounting for the effects of non-CO2 forcings, were assessed in inconsistent ways by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), making the effects of non-CO2 forcings hard to identify. Here we use a consistent approach to compare 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C carbon budgets with and without accounting for the effects of non-CO2 forcings, using CO2-only and RCP8.5 simulations. The median allowable carbon budgets for 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C warming are reduced by 257 PgC and 418 PgC, respectively, and the uncertainty ranges on the budgets are reduced by more than a factor of two when accounting for the net warming effects of non-CO2 forcings. While our overall results are consistent with IPCC, we use a more robust methodology, and explain the narrower uncertainty ranges of carbon budgets when non-CO2 forcings are included. We demonstrate that most of the reduction in carbon budgets is a result of the direct warming effect of the non-CO2 forcings, with a secondary contribution from the influence of the non-CO2 forcings on the carbon cycle. Such carbon budgets are expected to play an increasingly important role in climate change mitigation, thus understanding the influence of non-CO2 forcings on these budgets and their uncertainties is critical. |
英文关键词 | carbon budgets temperature targets cumulative emissions non-CO2 forcings CMIP5 |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000427493300004 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE ; CMIP5 ; CO2 |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/32079 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Victoria, Sch Earth & Ocean Sci, 3800 Finnerty Rd, Victoria, BC V8W 3V6, Canada; 2.Univ Edinburgh, Sch Geosci, Edinburgh EH9 3JW, Midlothian, Scotland; 3.Univ Victoria, Canadian Ctr Climate Modelling & Anal, Environm & Climate Change Canada, STN CSC, PO 1700, Victoria, BC V8W 2Y2, Canada; 4.Simon Fraser Univ, Dept Geog, 8888 Univ Dr, Burnaby, BC V5A 1S6, Canada |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Tokarska, Katarzyna B.,Gillett, Nathan P.,Arora, Vivek K.,et al. The influence of non-CO2 forcings on cumulative carbon emissions budgets[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,13(3). |
APA | Tokarska, Katarzyna B.,Gillett, Nathan P.,Arora, Vivek K.,Lee, Warren G.,&Zickfeld, Kirsten.(2018).The influence of non-CO2 forcings on cumulative carbon emissions budgets.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,13(3). |
MLA | Tokarska, Katarzyna B.,et al."The influence of non-CO2 forcings on cumulative carbon emissions budgets".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 13.3(2018). |
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