资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

Distributions of rainfall with the time and space resolutions of minutes and kilometers, respectively, are often needed to drive the hydrological models used in a range of engineering, environmental, and urban design applications. The work described here is the first step in constructing a model capable of downscaling rainfall to scales of minutes and kilometers from time and space resolutions of several hours and a hundred kilometers. A multiplicative random cascade model known as the Short-Term Ensemble Prediction System is run with parameters from the radar observations at Melbourne (Australia). The orographic effects are added through multiplicative correction factor after the model is run. In the first set of model calculations, 112 significant rain events over Melbourne are simulated 100 times. Because of the stochastic nature of the cascade model, the simulations represent 100 possible realizations of the same rain event. The cascade model produces realistic spatial and temporal patterns of rainfall at 6 min and 1 km resolution (the resolution of the radar data), the statistical properties of which are in close agreement with observation. In the second set of calculations, the cascade model is run continuously for all days from January 2008 to August 2015 and the rainfall accumulations are compared at 12 locations in the greater Melbourne area. The statistical properties of the observations lie with envelope of the 100 ensemble members. The model successfully reproduces the frequency distribution of the 6 min rainfall intensities, storm durations, interarrival times, and autocorrelation function.