Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/gcb.15565 |
Lengthening of maize maturity time is not a widespread climate change adaptation strategy in the US Midwest | |
Lori J. Abendroth; Fernando E. Miguez; Michael J. Castellano; Paul R. Carter; Carlos D. Messina; Philip M. Dixon; Jerry L. Hatfield | |
2021-03-17 | |
发表期刊 | Global Change Biology
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出版年 | 2021 |
英文摘要 | Increasing temperatures in the US Midwest are projected to reduce maize yields because warmer temperatures hasten reproductive development and, as a result, shorten the grain fill period. However, there is widespread expectation that farmers will mitigate projected yield losses by planting longer season hybrids that lengthen the grain fill period. Here, we ask: (a) how current hybrid maturity length relates to thermal availability of the local climate, and (b) if farmers are shifting to longer season hybrids in response to a warming climate. To address these questions, we used county‐level Pioneer brand hybrid sales (Corteva Agriscience) across 17 years and 650 counties in 10 Midwest states (IA, IL, IN, MI, MN, MO, ND, OH, SD, and WI). Northern counties were shown to select hybrid maturities with growing degree day (GDD°C) requirements more closely related to the environmentally available GDD compared to central and southern counties. This measure, termed “thermal overlap,” ranged from complete 106% in northern counties to a mere 63% in southern counties. The relationship between thermal overlap and latitude was fit using split‐line regression and a breakpoint of 42.8°N was identified. Over the 17‐years, hybrid maturities shortened across the majority of the Midwest with only a minority of counties lengthening in select northern and southern areas. The annual change in maturity ranged from −5.4 to 4.1 GDD year−1 with a median of −0.9 GDD year−1. The shortening of hybrid maturity contrasts with widespread expectations of hybrid maturity aligning with magnitude of warming. Factors other than thermal availability appear to more strongly impact farmer decision‐making such as the benefit of shorter maturity hybrids on grain drying costs, direct delivery to ethanol biorefineries, field operability, labor constraints, and crop genetics availability. Prediction of hybrid choice under future climate scenarios must include climatic factors, physiological‐genetic attributes, socio‐economic, and operational constraints. |
领域 | 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/319849 |
专题 | 气候变化 资源环境科学 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lori J. Abendroth,Fernando E. Miguez,Michael J. Castellano,et al. Lengthening of maize maturity time is not a widespread climate change adaptation strategy in the US Midwest[J]. Global Change Biology,2021. |
APA | Lori J. Abendroth.,Fernando E. Miguez.,Michael J. Castellano.,Paul R. Carter.,Carlos D. Messina.,...&Jerry L. Hatfield.(2021).Lengthening of maize maturity time is not a widespread climate change adaptation strategy in the US Midwest.Global Change Biology. |
MLA | Lori J. Abendroth,et al."Lengthening of maize maturity time is not a widespread climate change adaptation strategy in the US Midwest".Global Change Biology (2021). |
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