Globally observed trends in mean and extreme river flow attributed to climate change

doi:10.1126/science.aba3996

GSTDTAP > 气候变化

DOI	10.1126/science.aba3996
	Globally observed trends in mean and extreme river flow attributed to climate change
	Lukas Gudmundsson; Julien Boulange; Hong X. Do; Simon N. Gosling; Manolis G. Grillakis; Aristeidis G. Koutroulis; Michael Leonard; Junguo Liu; Hannes Müller Schmied; Lamprini Papadimitriou; Yadu Pokhrel; Sonia I. Seneviratne; Yusuke Satoh; Wim Thiery; Seth Westra; Xuebin Zhang; Fang Zhao
	2021-03-12
发表期刊	Science
出版年	2021
英文摘要	Anthropogenic influence on climate has changed temperatures, precipitation, atmospheric circulation, and many other related physical processes, but has it changed river flow as well? Gudmundsson et al. analyzed thousands of time series of river flows and hydrological extremes across the globe and compared them with model simulations of the terrestrial water cycle (see the Perspective by Hall and Perdigão). They found that the observed trends can only be explained if the effects of climate change are included. Their analysis shows that human influence on climate has affected the magnitude of low, mean, and high river flows on a global scale. Science , this issue p. [1159][1]; see also p. [1096][2] Anthropogenic climate change is expected to affect global river flow. Here, we analyze time series of low, mean, and high river flows from 7250 observatories around the world covering the years 1971 to 2010. We identify spatially complex trend patterns, where some regions are drying and others are wetting consistently across low, mean, and high flows. Trends computed from state-of-the-art model simulations are consistent with the observations only if radiative forcing that accounts for anthropogenic climate change is considered. Simulated effects of water and land management do not suffice to reproduce the observed trend pattern. Thus, the analysis provides clear evidence for the role of externally forced climate change as a causal driver of recent trends in mean and extreme river flow at the global scale. [1]: /lookup/doi/10.1126/science.aba3996 [2]: /lookup/doi/10.1126/science.abg6514
领域	气候变化 ; 资源环境
URL	查看原文
引用统计	被引频次：202[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/318697
专题	气候变化资源环境科学
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lukas Gudmundsson,Julien Boulange,Hong X. Do,et al. Globally observed trends in mean and extreme river flow attributed to climate change[J]. Science,2021.
APA	Lukas Gudmundsson.,Julien Boulange.,Hong X. Do.,Simon N. Gosling.,Manolis G. Grillakis.,...&Fang Zhao.(2021).Globally observed trends in mean and extreme river flow attributed to climate change.Science.
MLA	Lukas Gudmundsson,et al."Globally observed trends in mean and extreme river flow attributed to climate change".Science (2021).