Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2020WR028837 |
Improving the representation of long‐term storage variations with conceptual hydrological models in data‐scarce regions | |
Petra Hulsman; Markus Hrachowitz; Hubert H.G. Savenije | |
2021-03-10 | |
发表期刊 | Water Resources Research
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出版年 | 2021 |
英文摘要 | In the Luangwa basin in Zambia, long‐term total water storage variations were observed with GRACE, but not reproduced by a standard conceptual hydrological model that encapsulates our current understanding of the dominant regional hydrological processes. The objective of this paper was to identify potential processes underlying these low‐frequency variations through combined data analysis and model hypothesis testing. First, we analysed the effect of data uncertainty by contrasting observed storage variations with multi‐annual estimates of precipitation and evaporation from multiple data sources. Second, we analysed four different combinations of model forcing and evaluated their skill to reproduce the observed long‐term storage variations. Third, we formulated alternative model hypotheses for groundwater export to potentially explain low‐frequency storage variations. Overall, the results suggest that the initial model's inability to reproduce the observed low‐frequency storage variations was partly due to the forcing data used and partly due to the missing representation of regional groundwater export. More specifically, the choice of data source affected the model's ability to reproduce annual maximum storage fluctuations, whereas the annual minima improved by adapting the model structure to allow for groundwater export from a deeper groundwater layer. This suggests that, in contrast to previous research, conceptual models can reproduce long‐term storage fluctuations if a suitable model structure is used. Overall, the results highlight the value of alternative data sources and iterative testing of model structural hypotheses to improve runoff predictions in a poorly gauged basin leading to enhanced understanding of its hydrological processes. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/318610 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Petra Hulsman,Markus Hrachowitz,Hubert H.G. Savenije. Improving the representation of long‐term storage variations with conceptual hydrological models in data‐scarce regions[J]. Water Resources Research,2021. |
APA | Petra Hulsman,Markus Hrachowitz,&Hubert H.G. Savenije.(2021).Improving the representation of long‐term storage variations with conceptual hydrological models in data‐scarce regions.Water Resources Research. |
MLA | Petra Hulsman,et al."Improving the representation of long‐term storage variations with conceptual hydrological models in data‐scarce regions".Water Resources Research (2021). |
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