资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

Marine heatwaves are extreme events in the ocean that can have severe impacts on ecosystems and economies. Recent studies have suggested future increases in the severity and duration of these events. However, these findings are based on coarse resolution climate models that cannot resolve important ocean structures. This study uses a 0.25° coupled regional model to quantify how a high emissions scenario impacts marine heatwaves around Australia. We find that increases to future marine heatwave statistics are primarily caused by changes in the mean temperature, with changes in variability also being important. Temperature variance changes are most prominent close to Tasmania, with a covariance temperature budget demonstrating that this is linked to large simulated increases in East Australian Current transport and variability. Close to New Zealand, changes in surface heat fluxes also play an important role. These results quantify the response of marine heatwave characteristics to future temperature changes.