Model-informed COVID-19 vaccine prioritization strategies by age and serostatus

doi:10.1126/science.abe6959

GSTDTAP > 气候变化

DOI	10.1126/science.abe6959
	Model-informed COVID-19 vaccine prioritization strategies by age and serostatus
	Kate M. Bubar; Kyle Reinholt; Stephen M. Kissler; Marc Lipsitch; Sarah Cobey; Yonatan H. Grad; Daniel B. Larremore
	2021-02-26
发表期刊	Science
出版年	2021
英文摘要	There is likely to be high demand for the limited supplies of vaccine against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), so how should vaccine distribution be prioritized? Bubar et al. modeled across countries how uncertainty about a vaccine's characteristics affects prioritization strategies for reducing deaths and transmission (see the Perspective by Fitzpatrick and Galvani). In the model, vaccine efficacy and its ability to reduce disease and/or block transmission was accounted for in relation to age-related variations in susceptibility, fatality rates, and immune decline. In almost all circumstances, reducing fatalities required distributing the vaccine to those who are most at risk of death, usually persons over 60 years of age and those with comorbidities. If a vaccine is leaky or poorly efficacious in older adults, then priority could be given to younger age groups. To increase the available doses, further priority should be given to seronegative individuals. Science , this issue p. [916][1]; see also p. [890][2] Limited initial supply of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccine raises the question of how to prioritize available doses. We used a mathematical model to compare five age-stratified prioritization strategies. A highly effective transmission-blocking vaccine prioritized to adults ages 20 to 49 years minimized cumulative incidence, but mortality and years of life lost were minimized in most scenarios when the vaccine was prioritized to adults greater than 60 years old. Use of individual-level serological tests to redirect doses to seronegative individuals improved the marginal impact of each dose while potentially reducing existing inequities in COVID-19 impact. Although maximum impact prioritization strategies were broadly consistent across countries, transmission rates, vaccination rollout speeds, and estimates of naturally acquired immunity, this framework can be used to compare impacts of prioritization strategies across contexts. [1]: /lookup/doi/10.1126/science.abe6959 [2]: /lookup/doi/10.1126/science.abg2334
领域	气候变化 ; 资源环境
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引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/315937
专题	气候变化资源环境科学
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Kate M. Bubar,Kyle Reinholt,Stephen M. Kissler,et al. Model-informed COVID-19 vaccine prioritization strategies by age and serostatus[J]. Science,2021.
APA	Kate M. Bubar.,Kyle Reinholt.,Stephen M. Kissler.,Marc Lipsitch.,Sarah Cobey.,...&Daniel B. Larremore.(2021).Model-informed COVID-19 vaccine prioritization strategies by age and serostatus.Science.
MLA	Kate M. Bubar,et al."Model-informed COVID-19 vaccine prioritization strategies by age and serostatus".Science (2021).