Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/ele.13703 |
Quantifying 25 years of disease‐caused declines in Tasmanian devil populations: host density drives spatial pathogen spread | |
Calum X. Cunningham; Sebastien Comte; Hamish McCallum; David G. Hamilton; Rodrigo Hamede; Andrew Storfer; Tracey Hollings; Manuel Ruiz‐; Aravena; Douglas H. Kerlin; Barry W. Brook; Greg Hocking; Manna E. Jones | |
2021-02-27 | |
发表期刊 | Ecology Letters
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出版年 | 2021 |
英文摘要 | Infectious diseases are strong drivers of wildlife population dynamics, however, empirical analyses from the early stages of pathogen emergence are rare. Tasmanian devil facial tumour disease (DFTD), discovered in 1996, provides the opportunity to study an epizootic from its inception. We use a pattern‐oriented diffusion simulation to model the spatial spread of DFTD across the species' range and quantify population effects by jointly modelling multiple streams of data spanning 35 years. We estimate the wild devil population peaked at 53 000 in 1996, less than half of previous estimates. DFTD spread rapidly through high‐density areas, with spread velocity slowing in areas of low host densities. By 2020, DFTD occupied >90% of the species' range, causing 82% declines in local densities and reducing the total population to 16 900. Encouragingly, our model forecasts the population decline should level‐off within the next decade, supporting conservation management focused on facilitating evolution of resistance and tolerance. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/315869 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Calum X. Cunningham,Sebastien Comte,Hamish McCallum,等. Quantifying 25 years of disease‐caused declines in Tasmanian devil populations: host density drives spatial pathogen spread[J]. Ecology Letters,2021. |
APA | Calum X. Cunningham.,Sebastien Comte.,Hamish McCallum.,David G. Hamilton.,Rodrigo Hamede.,...&Manna E. Jones.(2021).Quantifying 25 years of disease‐caused declines in Tasmanian devil populations: host density drives spatial pathogen spread.Ecology Letters. |
MLA | Calum X. Cunningham,et al."Quantifying 25 years of disease‐caused declines in Tasmanian devil populations: host density drives spatial pathogen spread".Ecology Letters (2021). |
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