资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

Climate change will markedly alter the structure and function of ecosystems, with important implications for land management. Yet scientists' ability to predict future ecological conditions is hampered by uncertainty in both climate projections and ecological responses to climate change. More data are now available - from small-scale experimental results to continental vegetation model projections - to improve understanding of climate vulnerability. Integrating these resources can strengthen vulnerability assessments but managers may become skeptical of the assessment process when information sources generate conflicting outcomes. We discuss practical approaches to integrating multiple lines of evidence in vulnerability assessments, and illustrate these approaches using three case studies: Oregon white oak in the Willamette Valley, whitebark pine in south-central Idaho, and sagebrush steppe on the Columbia Plateau. These cases demonstrate that although weaving together multiple lines of evidence can be challenging, unique insights can emerge even when there is divergence in projected changes.