Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/ele.12876 |
Probing the limits of predictability: data assimilation of chaotic dynamics in complex food webs | |
Massoud, Elias C.1; Huisman, Jef2; Beninca, Elisa3; Dietze, Michael C.4; Bouten, Willem2,5; Vrugt, Jasper A.1,6 | |
2018 | |
发表期刊 | ECOLOGY LETTERS
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ISSN | 1461-023X |
EISSN | 1461-0248 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 21期号:1页码:93-103 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; Netherlands |
英文摘要 | The daunting complexity of ecosystems has led ecologists to use mathematical modelling to gain understanding of ecological relationships, processes and dynamics. In pursuit of mathematical tractability, these models use simplified descriptions of key patterns, processes and relationships observed in nature. In contrast, ecological data are often complex, scale-dependent, space-time correlated, and governed by nonlinear relations between organisms and their environment. This disparity in complexity between ecosystem models and data has created a large gap in ecology between model and data-driven approaches. Here, we explore data assimilation (DA) with the Ensemble Kalman filter to fuse a two-predator-two-prey model with abundance data from a 2600+ day experiment of a plankton community. We analyse how frequently we must assimilate measured abundances to predict accurately population dynamics, and benchmark our population model's forecast horizon against a simple null model. Results demonstrate that DA enhances the predictability and forecast horizon of complex community dynamics. |
英文关键词 | Data assimilation ecological models ecosystems food webs forecast horizons plankton predator-prey |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000418133700010 |
WOS关键词 | SEQUENTIAL DATA ASSIMILATION ; ECOSYSTEM MODELS ; TIME-SERIES ; ECOLOGY ; OPTIMIZATION ; OSCILLATIONS ; UNCERTAINTY ; IMPROVEMENT ; CAPACITY |
WOS类目 | Ecology |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/31426 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Calif Irvine, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Irvine, CA 92697 USA; 2.Univ Amsterdam, Inst Biodivers & Ecosyst Dynam, Amsterdam, Netherlands; 3.Natl Inst Publ Hlth & Environm, Ctr Infect Dis Control, Bilthoven, Netherlands; 4.Boston Univ, Dept Earth & Environm, Boston, MA 02215 USA; 5.Univ Amsterdam, Inst Adv Study, Amsterdam, Netherlands; 6.Univ Calif Irvine, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Irvine, CA 92697 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Massoud, Elias C.,Huisman, Jef,Beninca, Elisa,et al. Probing the limits of predictability: data assimilation of chaotic dynamics in complex food webs[J]. ECOLOGY LETTERS,2018,21(1):93-103. |
APA | Massoud, Elias C.,Huisman, Jef,Beninca, Elisa,Dietze, Michael C.,Bouten, Willem,&Vrugt, Jasper A..(2018).Probing the limits of predictability: data assimilation of chaotic dynamics in complex food webs.ECOLOGY LETTERS,21(1),93-103. |
MLA | Massoud, Elias C.,et al."Probing the limits of predictability: data assimilation of chaotic dynamics in complex food webs".ECOLOGY LETTERS 21.1(2018):93-103. |
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