Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/ele.12732 |
Inferring infection hazard in wildlife populations by linking data across individual and population scales | |
Pepin, Kim M.1; Kay, Shannon L.1; Golas, Ben D.2; Shriner, Susan S.1; Gilbert, Amy T.1; Miller, Ryan S.3; Graham, Andrea L.4; Riley, Steven5; Cross, Paul C.6; Samuel, Michael D.7; Hooten, Mevin B.8,9,10; Hoeting, Jennifer A.10; Lloyd-Smith, James O.11; Webb, Colleen T.2; Buhnerkempe, Michael G.11 | |
2017-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | ECOLOGY LETTERS |
ISSN | 1461-023X |
EISSN | 1461-0248 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 20期号:3 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; England |
英文摘要 | Our ability to infer unobservable disease-dynamic processes such as force of infection (infection hazard for susceptible hosts) has transformed our understanding of disease transmission mechanisms and capacity to predict disease dynamics. Conventional methods for inferring FOI estimate a time-averaged value and are based on population-level processes. Because many pathogens exhibit epidemic cycling and FOI is the result of processes acting across the scales of individuals and populations, a flexible framework that extends to epidemic dynamics and links within-host processes to FOI is needed. Specifically, within-host antibody kinetics in wildlife hosts can be short-lived and produce patterns that are repeatable across individuals, suggesting individual-level antibody concentrations could be used to infer time since infection and hence FOI. Using simulations and case studies (influenza A in lesser snow geese and Yersinia pestis in coyotes), we argue that with careful experimental and surveillance design, the population-level FOI signal can be recovered from individual-level antibody kinetics, despite substantial individual-level variation. In addition to improving inference, the cross-scale quantitative antibody approach we describe can reveal insights into drivers of individual-based variation in disease response, and the role of poorly understood processes such as secondary infections, in population-level dynamics of disease. |
英文关键词 | Antibody antibody kinetics disease hazard force of infection incidence individual-level variation influenza serosurveillance transmission within-host |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000395169300001 |
WOS关键词 | LONG-TERM ; BORDETELLA-PERTUSSIS ; ANTIBODY-RESPONSES ; SEROLOGICAL DATA ; AVIAN INFLUENZA ; MIXTURE-MODELS ; WITHIN-HOST ; DYNAMICS ; DISEASE ; IMMUNITY |
WOS类目 | Ecology |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/31414 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.USDA, Natl Wildlife Res Ctr, 4101 Laporte Ave, Ft Collins, CO 80521 USA; 2.Colorado State Univ, Dept Biol, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA; 3.Anim & Plant Hlth Inspect Serv, USDA, Vet Serv, 2155 Ctr Dr,Bldg B, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA; 4.Princeton Univ, Dept Ecol & Evolutionary Biol, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA; 5.Imperial Coll, MRC Ctr Outbreak Anal & Modelling, London, England; 6.US Geol Survey, Northern Rocky Mt Sci Ctr, 2327 Univ Way, Bozeman, MT 59715 USA; 7.Univ Wisconsin, US Geol Survey, Wisconsin Cooperat Wildlife Res Unit, 1630 Linden Drove, Madison, WI 53706 USA; 8.Colorado State Univ, US Geol Survey, Colorado Cooperat Fish & Wildlife Res Unit, 1484 Campus Delivery, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA; 9.Colorado State Univ, Dept Fish Wildlife & Conservat Biol, 1484 Campus Delivery, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA; 10.Colorado State Univ, Dept Stat, 1484 Campus Delivery, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA; 11.Univ Calif Los Angeles, Dept Ecol & Evolutionary Biol, Los Angeles, CA USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Pepin, Kim M.,Kay, Shannon L.,Golas, Ben D.,et al. Inferring infection hazard in wildlife populations by linking data across individual and population scales[J]. ECOLOGY LETTERS,2017,20(3). |
APA | Pepin, Kim M..,Kay, Shannon L..,Golas, Ben D..,Shriner, Susan S..,Gilbert, Amy T..,...&Buhnerkempe, Michael G..(2017).Inferring infection hazard in wildlife populations by linking data across individual and population scales.ECOLOGY LETTERS,20(3). |
MLA | Pepin, Kim M.,et al."Inferring infection hazard in wildlife populations by linking data across individual and population scales".ECOLOGY LETTERS 20.3(2017). |
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