Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2020WR028491 |
Does the Hook Structure Constrain Future Flood Intensification under Anthropogenic Climate Warming? | |
Jiabo Yin; Shenglian Guo; Pierre Gentine; Sylvia C. Sullivan; Lei Gu; Shaokun He; Jie Chen; Pan Liu | |
2021-02-01 | |
发表期刊 | Water Resources Research |
出版年 | 2021 |
英文摘要 | Atmospheric moisture holding capacity increases with temperature by about 7% per °C according to the Clausius‐Clapeyron relationship. Thermodynamically then, precipitation intensity should exponentially intensify and thus worsen flood conditions as the climate warms. However, regional and global analyses often report a non‐monotonic (hook) scaling of precipitation and runoff, in which extremes strengthen with rising temperature up to a maximum or peak point (Tpp) and decline thereafter. The underlying cause of this hook structure is not yet well‐understood, and whether it may shift and/or regulate storm runoff extremes under anthropogenic climate warming remains unknown. Here we examine temperature scaling of precipitation and storm runoff extremes under different climate conditions using observations and large ensemble hydroclimatic simulations over mainland China. In‐situ observations suggest a spatially homogeneous, negative response of relative humidity to warming climates over 34.6% of the land area, and the remaining hook‐dominated regions usually show a colder Tpp than that of precipitation or storm runoff extremes. The precipitation and streamflow series over mainland China's catchments throughout the 21st century are projected by a model cascade chain under a high‐end emission scenario (RCP8.5), which involves 31 CMIP5 climate models, eleven CMIP6 climate members, a daily bias correction method and four lumped conceptual hydrological models. The CMIP5 ensemble projects that the hook structures shift towards warmer temperature bins, resulting in 10 to 30% increases in storm runoff extremes over mainland China, while the CMIP6 ensemble projects more severe flood conditions in future warming climates. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/313861 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Jiabo Yin,Shenglian Guo,Pierre Gentine,et al. Does the Hook Structure Constrain Future Flood Intensification under Anthropogenic Climate Warming?[J]. Water Resources Research,2021. |
APA | Jiabo Yin.,Shenglian Guo.,Pierre Gentine.,Sylvia C. Sullivan.,Lei Gu.,...&Pan Liu.(2021).Does the Hook Structure Constrain Future Flood Intensification under Anthropogenic Climate Warming?.Water Resources Research. |
MLA | Jiabo Yin,et al."Does the Hook Structure Constrain Future Flood Intensification under Anthropogenic Climate Warming?".Water Resources Research (2021). |
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