Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2020GL091823 |
Towards narrowing uncertainty in future projections of local extreme precipitation | |
Francesco Marra; Moshe Armon; Ori Adam; Davide Zoccatelli; Osama Gazal; Chaim I. Garfinkel; Dorita Rostkier‐; Edelstein; Uri Dayan; Yehouda Enzel; Efrat Morin | |
2021-02-01 | |
发表期刊 | Geophysical Research Letters
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出版年 | 2021 |
英文摘要 | Projections of extreme precipitation based on modern climate models suffer from large uncertainties. Specifically, unresolved physics and natural variability limit the ability of climate models to provide actionable information on impacts and risks at the regional, watershed and city scales relevant for practical applications. Here we show that the interaction of precipitating systems with local features can constrain the statistical description of extreme precipitation. These observational constraints can be used to project local extremes of low yearly exceedance probability (e.g., 100‐year events) using synoptic‐scale information from climate models, which is generally represented more accurately than the local‐scales, and without requiring climate models to explicitly resolve extremes. The novel approach, demonstrated here over the southeastern Mediterranean, offers a path for improving the predictability of local statistics of extremes in a changing climate, independent of pending improvements in climate models at regional and local scales. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/313821 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Francesco Marra,Moshe Armon,Ori Adam,et al. Towards narrowing uncertainty in future projections of local extreme precipitation[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2021. |
APA | Francesco Marra.,Moshe Armon.,Ori Adam.,Davide Zoccatelli.,Osama Gazal.,...&Efrat Morin.(2021).Towards narrowing uncertainty in future projections of local extreme precipitation.Geophysical Research Letters. |
MLA | Francesco Marra,et al."Towards narrowing uncertainty in future projections of local extreme precipitation".Geophysical Research Letters (2021). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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