Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2020GL092064 |
Projecting Global Mean Sea‐Level Change Using CMIP6 Models | |
Tim H. J. Hermans; Jonathan M. Gregory; Matthew D. Palmer; Mark A. Ringer; Caroline A. Katsman; Aimé; e B. A. Slangen | |
2021-02-06 | |
发表期刊 | Geophysical Research Letters
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出版年 | 2021 |
英文摘要 | The effective climate sensitivity (EffCS) of models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) has increased relative to CMIP5. We explore the implications of this for global mean sea‐level (GMSL) change projections in 2100 for three emissions scenarios. CMIP6 projections of global surface air temperature are substantially higher than in CMIP5, but projections of global mean thermal expansion are not. Using these projections as input to construct projections of GMSL change with IPCC AR5 methods, the 95th percentile of GMSL change at 2100 only increases by 3‐7 cm. Projected rates of GMSL rise around 2100 increase more strongly, though, implying more pronounced differences beyond 2100 and greater committed sea‐level rise. Inter‐model differences in GMSL projections indicate that EffCS‐based model selection may substantially alter the ensemble projections. GMSL change in 2100 is accurately predicted by time‐integrated temperature change, and thus requires reducing emissions early to be mitigated. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/313747 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Tim H. J. Hermans,Jonathan M. Gregory,Matthew D. Palmer,等. Projecting Global Mean Sea‐Level Change Using CMIP6 Models[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2021. |
APA | Tim H. J. Hermans.,Jonathan M. Gregory.,Matthew D. Palmer.,Mark A. Ringer.,Caroline A. Katsman.,...&e B. A. Slangen.(2021).Projecting Global Mean Sea‐Level Change Using CMIP6 Models.Geophysical Research Letters. |
MLA | Tim H. J. Hermans,et al."Projecting Global Mean Sea‐Level Change Using CMIP6 Models".Geophysical Research Letters (2021). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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