资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

The power sector has tremendous technological potential for decarbonization, hence, the decarbonization of China's power sector is crucial to the successful implementation of national carbon emissions reduction plan. In this study, a decarbonization model with consideration of both technological progress and cross-regional power transmission for China's power sector is built to explore the potential and possible pathway of decarbonization under the constraint of optimal cost. The model is operated at different carbon prices in three economic growth scenarios. Our findings show that the power generation structure is undergoing a shift from coal power to hydropower, nuclear power, and wind power, and both the coal power generation and carbon emissions can peak by 2030. Carbon pricing can speed up this process and reduce the peak height. Additionally, an appropriate carbon price has a significant promoting effect on decarbonization in the power sector; we conclude that the optimal carbon price is 21 USD/t. Moreover, the higher the economic development level, the lower the final average cost of power generation mix and the more significant the carbon emissions reduction, which implies that it is more cost-effective to carry out decarbonization related policy in the power sector during the stage of rapid economic growth.