Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2020GL091022 |
Statistical Forecasts for the Occurrence of Precipitation Outperform Global Models over Northern Tropical Africa | |
Peter Vogel; Peter Knippertz; Tilmann Gneiting; Andreas H. Fink; Manuel Klar; Andreas Schlueter | |
2020-12-28 | |
发表期刊 | Geophysical Research Letters |
出版年 | 2020 |
英文摘要 | Short‐term global ensemble predictions of rainfall currently have no skill over northern tropical Africa when compared to simple climatology‐based forecasts, even after sophisticated statistical postprocessing. Here we demonstrate that 1‐day statistical forecasts for the probability of precipitation occurrence based on a simple logistic regression model have considerable potential for improvement. The new approach we present here relies on gridded rainfall estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission for July–September 1998–2017 and uses rainfall amounts from the pixels that show highest positive and negative correlations on the previous two days as input. Forecasts using this model are reliable and have a higher resolution and better skill than climatology‐based forecasts. The good performance is related to westward propagating African easterly waves and embedded mesoscale convective systems. The statistical model is outmatched by the postprocessed dynamical forecast in the dry outer tropics only, where extratropical influences are important. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/311474 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Peter Vogel,Peter Knippertz,Tilmann Gneiting,et al. Statistical Forecasts for the Occurrence of Precipitation Outperform Global Models over Northern Tropical Africa[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2020. |
APA | Peter Vogel,Peter Knippertz,Tilmann Gneiting,Andreas H. Fink,Manuel Klar,&Andreas Schlueter.(2020).Statistical Forecasts for the Occurrence of Precipitation Outperform Global Models over Northern Tropical Africa.Geophysical Research Letters. |
MLA | Peter Vogel,et al."Statistical Forecasts for the Occurrence of Precipitation Outperform Global Models over Northern Tropical Africa".Geophysical Research Letters (2020). |
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