资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

The Caspian Sea and Black Sea are earth's largest inland seas. How their temperature, circulation and freshwater balance will respond to greenhouse warming remains unresolved. Previous studies have relied on coarse‐resolution coupled or regional uncoupled climate models with limited abilities to resolve regional features. Here we present results from century‐long greenhouse warming simulations conducted with the Community Earth System Model using a global horizontal resolution of 1/10° in the ocean and inland seas and 1/4° in the atmosphere. In response to CO₂ doubling surface temperatures in the inland seas increase by about 2.5°C. An overall reduction of wind stress curl causes a spin‐down of the main gyre circulations, reaching about ‐20%/CO₂ doubling for the Black Sea Rim Current. Increased future evaporation translates to negative equivalent sea level trends of about ‐0.1 m/year/CO₂ doubling. The robust climate shifts presented here are likely to impact ecosystems, fisheries and threaten existing coastal infrastructures.

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