Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/ele.12927 |
The predictability of a lake phytoplankton community, over time-scales of hours to years | |
Thomas, Mridul K.1,2; Fontana, Simone1,3; Reyes, Marta1; Kehoe, Michael4,5; Pomati, Francesco1,6 | |
2018-05-01 | |
发表期刊 | ECOLOGY LETTERS |
ISSN | 1461-023X |
EISSN | 1461-0248 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 21期号:5页码:619-628 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Switzerland; Denmark; Canada |
英文摘要 | Forecasting changes to ecological communities is one of the central challenges in ecology. However, nonlinear dependencies, biotic interactions and data limitations have limited our ability to assess howpredictable communities are. Here, we used a machine learning approach and environmental monitoring data (biological, physical and chemical) to assess the predictability of phytoplankton celldensity in one lake across an unprecedented range of time-scales. Communities were highly predictable over hours to months: model R-2 decreased from 0.89 at 4hours to 0.74 at 1month, and in a long-term dataset lacking fine spatial resolution, from 0.46 at 1month to 0.32 at 10years. When cyanobacterial and eukaryotic algal cell densities were examined separately, model-inferred environmental growth dependencies matched laboratory studies, and suggested novel trade-offs governing their competition. High-frequency monitoring and machine learning can set prediction targets for process-based models and help elucidate the mechanisms underlying ecological dynamics. |
英文关键词 | Cyanobacteria environmental monitoring forecasting machine learning phytoplankton prediction time series |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000430120400002 |
WOS关键词 | LIGHT ; ECOLOGY ; DISTRIBUTIONS ; TEMPERATURE ; RESPONSES ; DYNAMICS ; PREDICTION ; STABILITY ; GROWTH ; MODEL |
WOS类目 | Ecology |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/31134 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Eawag Swiss Fed Inst Aquat Sci & Technol, Dept Aquat Ecol, Dubendorf, Switzerland; 2.Tech Univ Denmark, DTU Aqua, Ctr Ocean Life, Lyngby, Denmark; 3.Swiss Fed Res Inst WSL, Biodivers & Conservat Biol, Birmensdorf, Switzerland; 4.Univ Saskatchewan, Global Inst Water Secur, Saskatoon, SK, Canada; 5.Univ Saskatchewan, Sch Environm & Sustainabil, Saskatoon, SK, Canada; 6.Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Integrat Biol, Zurich, Switzerland |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Thomas, Mridul K.,Fontana, Simone,Reyes, Marta,et al. The predictability of a lake phytoplankton community, over time-scales of hours to years[J]. ECOLOGY LETTERS,2018,21(5):619-628. |
APA | Thomas, Mridul K.,Fontana, Simone,Reyes, Marta,Kehoe, Michael,&Pomati, Francesco.(2018).The predictability of a lake phytoplankton community, over time-scales of hours to years.ECOLOGY LETTERS,21(5),619-628. |
MLA | Thomas, Mridul K.,et al."The predictability of a lake phytoplankton community, over time-scales of hours to years".ECOLOGY LETTERS 21.5(2018):619-628. |
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