Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aaa511 |
Climate and health implications of future aerosol emission scenarios | |
Partanen, Antti-Ilari1,2; Landry, Jean-Sebastien1,3; Matthews, H. Damon1 | |
2018-02-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 13期号:2 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Canada; Finland |
英文摘要 | Anthropogenic aerosols have a net cooling effect on climate and also cause adverse health effects by degrading air quality. In this global-scale sensitivity study, we used a combination of the aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAMMOZ and the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model to assess the climate and health effects of aerosols emissions from three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) and two new (LOW and HIGH) aerosol emission scenarios derived from RCP4.5, but that span a wider spectrum of possible future aerosol emissions. All simulations had CO2 emissions and greenhouse gas forcings from RCP4.5. Aerosol forcing declined similarly in the standard RCP aerosol emission scenarios: the aerosol effective radiative forcing (ERF) decreased from -1.3 Wm(-2) in 2005 to between -0.1 Wm(-2) and -0.4 Wm(-2) in 2100. The differences in ERF were substantially larger between LOW (-0.02 Wm(-2) in 2100) and HIGH (-0.8 Wm(-2)) scenarios. The global mean temperature difference between the simulations with standard RCP aerosol emissions was less than 0.18 degrees C, whereas the difference between LOW and HIGH reached 0.86 degrees C in 2061. In LOW, the rate of warming peaked at 0.48 degrees C per decade in the 2030s, whereas in HIGH it was the lowest of all simulations and never exceeded 0.23 degrees C per decade. Using present-day population density and baseline mortality rates for all scenarios, PM2.5-induced premature mortality was 2 371 800 deaths per year in 2010 and 525 700 in 2100 with RCP4.5 aerosol emissions; in HIGH, the premature mortality reached its maximum value of 2 780 800 deaths per year in 2030, whereas in LOW the premature mortality at 2030 was below 299 900 deaths per year. Our results show potential trade-offs in aerosol mitigation with respect to climate change and public health as ambitious reduction of aerosol emissions considerably increased warming while decreasing mortality. |
英文关键词 | anthropogenic aerosols climate change aerosol health effects climate modeling |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000425024400002 |
WOS关键词 | OUTDOOR AIR-POLLUTION ; PREMATURE MORTALITY ; GLOBAL MORTALITY ; MODEL ; EXPOSURE ; IMPACT ; TEMPERATURE ; QUALITY ; BURDEN |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/31050 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Concordia Univ, Dept Geog Planning & Environm, 1455 De Maisonneuve Blvd West, Montreal, PQ H3G 1M8, Canada; 2.Finnish Meteorol Inst, Climate Syst Res, POB 503, FIN-00101 Helsinki, Finland; 3.Univ Sherbrooke, Dept Geomat Appl, 2500 Blvd Univ, Sherbrooke, PQ J1K 2R1, Canada |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Partanen, Antti-Ilari,Landry, Jean-Sebastien,Matthews, H. Damon. Climate and health implications of future aerosol emission scenarios[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,13(2). |
APA | Partanen, Antti-Ilari,Landry, Jean-Sebastien,&Matthews, H. Damon.(2018).Climate and health implications of future aerosol emission scenarios.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,13(2). |
MLA | Partanen, Antti-Ilari,et al."Climate and health implications of future aerosol emission scenarios".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 13.2(2018). |
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