Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aab94a |
Global predictability of temperature extremes | |
de Perez, Erin Coughlan1,2,3; van Aalst, Maarten1,3,4; Bischiniotis, Konstantinos3; Mason, Simon2; Nissan, Hannah2; Pappenberger, Florian5; Stephens, Elisabeth6; Zsoter, Ervin5; van den Hurk, Bart6,7 | |
2018-05-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 13期号:5 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Netherlands; USA; England |
英文摘要 | Extreme temperatures are one of the leading causes of death and disease in both developed and developing countries, and heat extremes are projected to rise in many regions. To reduce risk, heatwave plans and cold weather plans have been effectively implemented around the world. However, much of the world's population is not yet protected by such systems, including many data-scarce but also highly vulnerable regions. In this study, we assess at a global level where such systems have the potential to be effective at reducing risk from temperature extremes, characterizing (1) long-term average occurrence of heatwaves and coldwaves, (2) seasonality of these extremes, and (3) short-term predictability of these extreme events three to ten days in advance. Using both the NOAA and ECMWF weather forecast models, we develop global maps indicating a first approximation of the locations that are likely to benefit from the development of seasonal preparedness plans and/or short-term early warning systems for extreme temperature. The extratropics generally show both short-term skill as well as strong seasonality; in the tropics, most locations do also demonstrate one or both. In fact, almost 5 billion people live in regions that have seasonality and predictability of heatwaves and/or coldwaves. Climate adaptation investments in these regions can take advantage of seasonality and predictability to reduce risks to vulnerable populations. |
英文关键词 | heat cold extremes climate risk management forecast verification climate preparedness |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000431317000001 |
WOS关键词 | HEAT-WAVE ; COLD SPELLS ; HOSPITAL ADMISSIONS ; CLIMATE FORECASTS ; EXCESS MORTALITY ; TIME-SERIES ; POPULATION ; HEALTH ; IMPACT ; MORBIDITY |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/31038 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Ctr, The Hague, Netherlands; 2.Columbia Univ, Int Res Inst Climate & Soc, New York, NY 10027 USA; 3.Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, Amsterdam, Netherlands; 4.UCL, Dept Sci Technol Engn & Publ Policy, London, England; 5.European Ctr Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, Berks, England; 6.Univ Reading, Sch Archaeol Geog & Environm Sci, Reading, Berks, England; 7.Royal Netherlands Meteorol Inst KNMI, De Bilt, Netherlands |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | de Perez, Erin Coughlan,van Aalst, Maarten,Bischiniotis, Konstantinos,et al. Global predictability of temperature extremes[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,13(5). |
APA | de Perez, Erin Coughlan.,van Aalst, Maarten.,Bischiniotis, Konstantinos.,Mason, Simon.,Nissan, Hannah.,...&van den Hurk, Bart.(2018).Global predictability of temperature extremes.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,13(5). |
MLA | de Perez, Erin Coughlan,et al."Global predictability of temperature extremes".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 13.5(2018). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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