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DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aaed59 |
Significantly increased extreme precipitation expected in Europe and North America from extratropical cyclones | |
Hawcroft, Matt1; Walsh, Ella1,2; Hodges, Kevin3; Zappa, Giuseppe3 | |
2018-12-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 13期号:12 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England |
英文摘要 | For the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, changes in the mid-latitude storm tracks are key to understanding the impacts of climate warming, but projections of their future location in current climate models are affected by large uncertainty. Here, we show that in spite of this uncertainty in the atmospheric circulation response to warming, by analysing the behaviour of the storms (or extratropical cyclones) themselves, projections of change in the number of the most intensely precipitating extratropical cyclones are substantial and consistent across models. In particular, we show large increases in the frequency of extreme extratropical cyclones (those above the present day 99th percentile of precipitation intensity) by the end of the century. In both Europe and North America, these intensely precipitating extratropical cyclones are projected to more than triple in number by the end of the century unless greenhouse gas emissions are mitigated. Such changes in extratropical cyclone behaviour may have major impacts on society given intensely precipitating extratropical cyclones are responsible for many large-scale flooding events, and associated severe economic losses, in these regions. |
英文关键词 | climate climate change precipitation climate models CMIP5 climate impacts |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000451307900001 |
WOS关键词 | FUTURE CHANGES ; STORM TRACKS ; CLIMATE ; CMIP5 ; PROJECTIONS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/31024 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Exeter, Coll Engn Math & Phys Sci, Exeter, Devon, England; 2.Univ Oxford, Sch Geog & Environm, Oxford, England; 3.Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Reading, Berks, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Hawcroft, Matt,Walsh, Ella,Hodges, Kevin,et al. Significantly increased extreme precipitation expected in Europe and North America from extratropical cyclones[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,13(12). |
APA | Hawcroft, Matt,Walsh, Ella,Hodges, Kevin,&Zappa, Giuseppe.(2018).Significantly increased extreme precipitation expected in Europe and North America from extratropical cyclones.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,13(12). |
MLA | Hawcroft, Matt,et al."Significantly increased extreme precipitation expected in Europe and North America from extratropical cyclones".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 13.12(2018). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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