资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

Using rain-gauge measurements and reanalysis data sets for 1948-2015, we propose a mechanism that controls the interannual variation of summer monsoon onset over central India. In May, about a month before the onset, the low level jet over the Arabian Sea is about 40% stronger and about 2.5 degrees northward during years of early onset as compared to years of late onset. A stronger and northward shifted low level jet carries about 50% more moisture in early onset years, which increases low level moist static energy over central India in the pre-monsoon season. The increase in low level moist static energy decreases the stability of the atmosphere and makes it conducive for convection.

The strength and position of the low level jet are determined by surface pressure gradient between western Asia and the west-equatorial Indian Ocean. Thus, an anomalous surface pressure low over western Asia in the pre-monsoon season increases this gradient and strengthens the jet. Moreover, a stronger low level jet increases the meridional shear of zonal wind and supports the formation of an onset vortex in a stronger baroclinic atmosphere. These developments are favourable for an early onset of the monsoon over the central Indian region. Our study postulates a new physical mechanism for the interannual variation of onset over central India, the core of the Indian monsoon region and relevant to Indian agriculture, and could be tested for real-time prediction.