资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

It is well established that carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most prominent agent of climate change. The level of CO2 in the atmosphere has been increasing persistently over the last few decades due to rising dependence on fossil fuels for energy production. India is facing a potential energy crisis. India has large coal reserves and coal is currently the linchpin of the Indian power sector, making Indian coal-derived emissions a focus of global attention. Further, India's journey from a challenging energy security situation to the 'Make in India' initiative is expected to drive energy needs exponentially. Thus, in the context of a rapidly changing climate, it has become imperative to quantify the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) from emerging coal-based energy plants in India. The present work attempts not only to do this, with the intention of highlighting India's commitment to reducing CO2 emissions, but also to redefine India's future emissions. We draw attention to India's attempt to transform the coal technology used in coal-based thermal power plants. We have tried to adopt a holistic approach to quantify the past (2010), present (2015) and future (2025) emission trends for important GHGs like CO2 and other critical air pollutants from rapidly penetrating low-emission advanced coal technology. Our estimation shows that CO2 emissions will increase from 1065 Tg yr(-1) (2015) to 2634 Tg yr(-1) (2025), which is approximately 147% of the current value. This rapid increase is largely attributed to rising energy demand due to industrial development, followed by demand from the domestic and agricultural sectors. The present trend of CO2 emissions is sure to propel India to become world's second largest emitter of GHGs in 2025, dislodging the United States. We have also estimated the emission of other pollutants like NOx, SO2, black carbon, organic carbon, particulate matter (PM2.5, PM10), volatile organic compounds and CO. Our findings seem to suggest that India will able to cut CO2 emission from the traditionally dominant thermal power sector by at least 19% in 2025. Present attempts at emission reduction, along with the government's massive initiatives towards building renewable energy infrastructure, could be well aligned to India's Intended Nationally Determined Contribution submission to COP21 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. With such a rapid expansion of energy production it can be assumed that cost-effective and uninterrupted power (i.e. 24/7) can be provided to all citizens of the country well before 2025.