GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1088/1748-9326/aa9def
Global mean sea-level rise in a world agreed upon in Paris
Bittermann, Klaus1,2; Rahmstorf, Stefan2; Kopp, Robert E.3,4; Kemp, Andrew C.1
2017-12-01
发表期刊ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN1748-9326
出版年2017
卷号12期号:12
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA; Germany
英文摘要

Although the 2015 Paris Agreement seeks to hold global average temperature to 'well below 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees C above pre-industrial levels', projections of global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise commonly focus on scenarios in which there is a high probability that warming exceeds 1.5 degrees C. Using a semi-empirical model, we project GMSL changes between now and 2150 CE under a suite of temperature scenarios that satisfy the Paris Agreement temperature targets. The projected magnitude and rate of GMSL rise varies among these low emissions scenarios. Stabilizing temperature at 1.5 degrees C instead of 2 degrees C above preindustrial reduces GMSL in 2150 CE by 17 cm(90% credible interval: 14-21 cm) and reduces peak rates of rise by 1.9 mm yr(-1) (90% credible interval: 1.4-2.6 mm yr(-1)). Delaying the year of peak temperature has little long-term influence on GMSL, but does reduce the maximum rate of rise. Stabilizing at 2 degrees C in 2080 CE rather than 2030 CE reduces the peak rate by 2.7 mm yr(-1) (90% credible interval: 2.0-4.0 mm yr(-1)).


英文关键词global mean sea level Paris accord semi-empirical sea-level model global mean sea-level projections
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000418037000002
WOS关键词2 DEGREES-C ; 20-1ST CENTURY ; ICE-SHEET ; COASTAL EROSION ; WEST ANTARCTICA ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; 20TH-CENTURY ; TEMPERATURE ; SCENARIOS ; IMPACTS
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/30976
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Tufts Univ, Dept Earth & Ocean Sci, Medford, MA 02155 USA;
2.Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Earth Syst Anal, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany;
3.Rutgers State Univ, Dept Earth & Planetary Sci, Piscataway, NJ 08854 USA;
4.Rutgers State Univ, Inst Earth Ocean & Atmospher Sci, New Brunswick, NJ 08901 USA
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Bittermann, Klaus,Rahmstorf, Stefan,Kopp, Robert E.,et al. Global mean sea-level rise in a world agreed upon in Paris[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2017,12(12).
APA Bittermann, Klaus,Rahmstorf, Stefan,Kopp, Robert E.,&Kemp, Andrew C..(2017).Global mean sea-level rise in a world agreed upon in Paris.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,12(12).
MLA Bittermann, Klaus,et al."Global mean sea-level rise in a world agreed upon in Paris".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 12.12(2017).
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