资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

Although the 2015 Paris Agreement seeks to hold global average temperature to 'well below 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees C above pre-industrial levels', projections of global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise commonly focus on scenarios in which there is a high probability that warming exceeds 1.5 degrees C. Using a semi-empirical model, we project GMSL changes between now and 2150 CE under a suite of temperature scenarios that satisfy the Paris Agreement temperature targets. The projected magnitude and rate of GMSL rise varies among these low emissions scenarios. Stabilizing temperature at 1.5 degrees C instead of 2 degrees C above preindustrial reduces GMSL in 2150 CE by 17 cm(90% credible interval: 14-21 cm) and reduces peak rates of rise by 1.9 mm yr(-1) (90% credible interval: 1.4-2.6 mm yr(-1)). Delaying the year of peak temperature has little long-term influence on GMSL, but does reduce the maximum rate of rise. Stabilizing at 2 degrees C in 2080 CE rather than 2030 CE reduces the peak rate by 2.7 mm yr(-1) (90% credible interval: 2.0-4.0 mm yr(-1)).