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DOI10.1088/1748-9326/aac4c3
Potential strong contribution of future anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change to the terrestrial carbon cycle
Quesada, Benjamin1; Arneth, Almut1; Robertson, Eddy2; de Noblet-Ducoudre, Nathalie3
2018-06-01
发表期刊ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN1748-9326
出版年2018
卷号13期号:6
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Germany; England; France
英文摘要

Anthropogenic land-use and land cover changes (LULCC) affect global climate and global terrestrial carbon (C) cycle. However, relatively few studies have quantified the impacts of future LULCC on terrestrial carbon cycle. Here, using Earth system model simulations performed with and without future LULCC, under the RCP8.5 scenario, we find that in response to future LULCC, the carbon cycle is substantially weakened: browning, lower ecosystem C stocks, higher C loss by disturbances and higher C turnover rates are simulated. Projected global greening and land C storage are dampened, in all models, by 22% and 24% on average and projected C loss by disturbances enhanced by similar to 49% when LULCC are taken into account. By contrast, global net primary productivity is found to be only slightly affected by LULCC (robust + 4% relative enhancement compared to all forcings, on average). LULCC is projected to be a predominant driver of future C changes in regions like South America and the southern part of Africa. LULCC even cause some regional reversals of projected increased C sinks and greening, particularly at the edges of the Amazon and African rainforests. Finally, in most carbon cycle responses, direct removal of C dominates over the indirect CO2 fertilization due to LULCC. In consequence, projections of land C sequestration potential and Earth's greening could be substantially overestimated just because of not fully accounting for LULCC.


英文关键词carbon cycle attribution land cover changes deforestation greening land carbon storage Earth system model
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000434489800002
WOS关键词ATMOSPHERIC CO2 ; CLIMATE ; EARTH ; EMISSIONS ; MODELS ; SEQUESTRATION ; UNCERTAINTY ; PROJECTIONS ; ECOSYSTEMS ; RESPONSES
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
被引频次:37[WOS]   [WOS记录]     [WOS相关记录]
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/30968
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Karlsruhe Inst Technol, Inst Meteorol & Climate Res, Atmospher Environm Res, D-82467 Garmisch Partenkirchen, Germany;
2.Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England;
3.Univ Paris Saclay, Unite Mixte CEA CNRS UVSQ, IPSL, LSCE, F-91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France
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GB/T 7714
Quesada, Benjamin,Arneth, Almut,Robertson, Eddy,et al. Potential strong contribution of future anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change to the terrestrial carbon cycle[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,13(6).
APA Quesada, Benjamin,Arneth, Almut,Robertson, Eddy,&de Noblet-Ducoudre, Nathalie.(2018).Potential strong contribution of future anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change to the terrestrial carbon cycle.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,13(6).
MLA Quesada, Benjamin,et al."Potential strong contribution of future anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change to the terrestrial carbon cycle".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 13.6(2018).
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