Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aac4c3 |
Potential strong contribution of future anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change to the terrestrial carbon cycle | |
Quesada, Benjamin1; Arneth, Almut1; Robertson, Eddy2; de Noblet-Ducoudre, Nathalie3 | |
2018-06-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 13期号:6 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Germany; England; France |
英文摘要 | Anthropogenic land-use and land cover changes (LULCC) affect global climate and global terrestrial carbon (C) cycle. However, relatively few studies have quantified the impacts of future LULCC on terrestrial carbon cycle. Here, using Earth system model simulations performed with and without future LULCC, under the RCP8.5 scenario, we find that in response to future LULCC, the carbon cycle is substantially weakened: browning, lower ecosystem C stocks, higher C loss by disturbances and higher C turnover rates are simulated. Projected global greening and land C storage are dampened, in all models, by 22% and 24% on average and projected C loss by disturbances enhanced by similar to 49% when LULCC are taken into account. By contrast, global net primary productivity is found to be only slightly affected by LULCC (robust + 4% relative enhancement compared to all forcings, on average). LULCC is projected to be a predominant driver of future C changes in regions like South America and the southern part of Africa. LULCC even cause some regional reversals of projected increased C sinks and greening, particularly at the edges of the Amazon and African rainforests. Finally, in most carbon cycle responses, direct removal of C dominates over the indirect CO2 fertilization due to LULCC. In consequence, projections of land C sequestration potential and Earth's greening could be substantially overestimated just because of not fully accounting for LULCC. |
英文关键词 | carbon cycle attribution land cover changes deforestation greening land carbon storage Earth system model |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000434489800002 |
WOS关键词 | ATMOSPHERIC CO2 ; CLIMATE ; EARTH ; EMISSIONS ; MODELS ; SEQUESTRATION ; UNCERTAINTY ; PROJECTIONS ; ECOSYSTEMS ; RESPONSES |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/30968 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Karlsruhe Inst Technol, Inst Meteorol & Climate Res, Atmospher Environm Res, D-82467 Garmisch Partenkirchen, Germany; 2.Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England; 3.Univ Paris Saclay, Unite Mixte CEA CNRS UVSQ, IPSL, LSCE, F-91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Quesada, Benjamin,Arneth, Almut,Robertson, Eddy,et al. Potential strong contribution of future anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change to the terrestrial carbon cycle[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,13(6). |
APA | Quesada, Benjamin,Arneth, Almut,Robertson, Eddy,&de Noblet-Ducoudre, Nathalie.(2018).Potential strong contribution of future anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change to the terrestrial carbon cycle.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,13(6). |
MLA | Quesada, Benjamin,et al."Potential strong contribution of future anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change to the terrestrial carbon cycle".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 13.6(2018). |
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