Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/ele.13652 |
Susceptible host availability modulates climate effects on dengue dynamics | |
Nicole Nova; Ethan R. Deyle; Marta S. Shocket; Andrew J. MacDonald; Marissa L. Childs; Martin Rypdal; George Sugihara; Erin A. Mordecai | |
2020-12-10 | |
发表期刊 | Ecology Letters |
出版年 | 2020 |
英文摘要 | Experiments and models suggest that climate affects mosquito‐borne disease transmission. However, disease transmission involves complex nonlinear interactions between climate and population dynamics, which makes detecting climate drivers at the population level challenging. By analysing incidence data, estimated susceptible population size, and climate data with methods based on nonlinear time series analysis (collectively referred to as empirical dynamic modelling), we identified drivers and their interactive effects on dengue dynamics in San Juan, Puerto Rico. Climatic forcing arose only when susceptible availability was high: temperature and rainfall had net positive and negative effects respectively. By capturing mechanistic, nonlinear and context‐dependent effects of population susceptibility, temperature and rainfall on dengue transmission empirically, our model improves forecast skill over recent, state‐of‐the‐art models for dengue incidence. Together, these results provide empirical evidence that the interdependence of host population susceptibility and climate drives dengue dynamics in a nonlinear and complex, yet predictable way. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/308190 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Nicole Nova,Ethan R. Deyle,Marta S. Shocket,et al. Susceptible host availability modulates climate effects on dengue dynamics[J]. Ecology Letters,2020. |
APA | Nicole Nova.,Ethan R. Deyle.,Marta S. Shocket.,Andrew J. MacDonald.,Marissa L. Childs.,...&Erin A. Mordecai.(2020).Susceptible host availability modulates climate effects on dengue dynamics.Ecology Letters. |
MLA | Nicole Nova,et al."Susceptible host availability modulates climate effects on dengue dynamics".Ecology Letters (2020). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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