资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

Understanding past and projected drought patterns across Central America's 'Dry Corridor' (CADC) is crucial for adaptation planning and impact mitigation, especially in small-scale agricultural communities. We analyzed historical and predicted drought patterns in the CADC by calculating Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values from local rain gauge records, reanalysis data and a 20-member ensemble of bias-corrected, downscaled CMIP-5 GCMs at both seasonal (3 month) and annual (12 month) scales. Trends in drought frequency, duration, intensity were assessed for three, 30 year future periods compared to historical values. Our results suggest a decrease in mean annual rainfall of 8%–14% in the CADC under moderate to high emissions scenarios, respectively, by end-of-century (2071–2100) relative to a historical baseline (1950–2005). However, projected changes to drought characteristics under these scenarios are more pronounced, with seasonal-scale droughts projected to lengthen by 12%–30%, intensify by 17%–42% and increase in frequency by 21%–24% by end-of-century. Annual-scale, longer-term droughts are projected to lengthen by 68% under moderate emissions, potentially triple in length under high emissions and to intensify by 27%–74%. These results were similar yet slightly more pronounced for some drought metrics when just considering rainy/cropping season months (May–Oct). End-of-century changes to rainfall reliability and drought occurrence such as these would severely impact millions of vulnerable inhabitants in the CADC and should be considered in adaptation policymaking efforts.