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Countries in South Asia’s Indus River Basin could lower costs for development and reduce soil pollution and water stress by cooperating on management and development of water resources, electricity, and food production, according to new IIASA research.

The Indus River Basin  ̶  which includes parts of Afghanistan, China, India, and Pakistan  ̶  is one of the most intensively cultivated regions on Earth, highly water-stressed, and lacking energy security. It is home to a rapidly growing population of 250 million people and the impacts of climate change are placing further stress on these already challenging conditions.  

“The Indus basin countries are not currently on track to avoid critical issues  ̶  water scarcity in particular,” says IIASA researcher Adriano Vinca, who led the study published in Nature Sustainability. “Under a business-as-usual scenario, the water demands in the Indus Basin will exceed the available water resources by 2050 and put the system at risk of collapse. This risk could be exacerbated by climate change.”

In order to address the challenges, the new study shows that Indus basin countries would need to ramp up investments to US$10 billion per year to mitigate water scarcity issues and ensure improved access to resources by 2050. However, by pursuing more collaborative policies, these costs could shrink to $2 billion per year, with economic gains for all. Downstream regions would benefit the most, with reduced food and energy costs and better water access, while upstream regions would benefit from new energy investments. Using integrated water-energy-land analysis, this study quantifies the potential benefits for novel avenues to sustainable development arising from greater international cooperation.