Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.5194/acp-17-13967-2017 |
Potential influences of neglecting aerosol effects on the NCEP GFS precipitation forecast | |
Jiang, Mengjiao1,2,3; Feng, Jinqin4; Li, Zhanqing1,2,3; Sun, Ruiyu5; Hou, Yu-Tai5; Zhu, Yuejian5; Wan, Bingcheng6; Guo, Jianping7; Cribb, Maureen2,3 | |
2017-11-23 | |
发表期刊 | ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
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ISSN | 1680-7316 |
EISSN | 1680-7324 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 17期号:22 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China; USA |
英文摘要 | Aerosol-cloud interactions (ACIs) have been widely recognized as a factor affecting precipitation. However, they have not been considered in the operational National Centers for Environmental Predictions Global Forecast System model. We evaluated the potential impact of neglecting ACI on the operational rainfall forecast using ground-based and satellite observations and model reanalysis. The Climate Prediction Center unified gauge-based precipitation analysis and the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 aerosol reanalysis were used to evaluate the forecast in three countries for the year 2015. The overestimation of light rain (47.84 %) and underestimation of heavier rain (31.83, 52.94, and 65.74 % for moderate rain, heavy rain, and very heavy rain, respectively) from the model are qualitatively consistent with the potential errors arising from not accounting for ACI, although other factors cannot be totally ruled out. The standard deviation of the forecast bias was significantly correlated with aerosol optical depth in Australia, the US, and China. To gain further insight, we chose the province of Fujian in China to pursue a more insightful investigation using a suite of variables from gauge-based observations of precipitation, visibility, water vapor, convective available potential energy (CAPE), and satellite datasets. Similar forecast biases were found: over-forecasted light rain and under-forecasted heavy rain. Long-term analyses revealed an increasing trend in heavy rain in summer and a decreasing trend in light rain in other seasons, accompanied by a decreasing trend in visibility, no trend in water vapor, and a slight increasing trend in summertime CAPE. More aerosols decreased cloud effective radii for cases where the liquid water path was greater than 100 g m(-2). All findings are consistent with the effects of ACI, i.e., where aerosols inhibit the development of shallow liquid clouds and invigorate warm-base mixed-phase clouds (especially in summertime), which in turn affects precipitation. While we cannot establish rigorous causal relations based on the analyses presented in this study, the significant rainfall forecast bias seen in operational weather forecast model simulations warrants consideration in future model improvements. |
领域 | 地球科学 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000435826500001 |
WOS关键词 | BOUNDARY-LAYER ; AIR-POLLUTION ; VERTICAL DIFFUSION ; CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ; OPTICAL-THICKNESS ; SATELLITE ; IMPACT ; PARAMETERIZATION ; INVIGORATION ; SUPPRESSION |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/30610 |
专题 | 地球科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Beijing Normal Univ, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resource Ecol, Coll Global Change & Earth Syst Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China; 2.Univ Maryland, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, College Pk, MD 20742 USA; 3.Univ Maryland, ESSIC, College Pk, MD 20742 USA; 4.Longyan Meteorol Off Fujian Prov, Longyan, Fujian, Peoples R China; 5.NOAA, Environm Modeling Ctr, Natl Ctr Environm Predict, College Pk, MD USA; 6.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, State Key Lab Atmospher Boundary Layer Phys & Atm, Beijing, Peoples R China; 7.Chinese Acad Meteorol Sci, State Key Lab Severe Weather, Beijing, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Jiang, Mengjiao,Feng, Jinqin,Li, Zhanqing,et al. Potential influences of neglecting aerosol effects on the NCEP GFS precipitation forecast[J]. ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,2017,17(22). |
APA | Jiang, Mengjiao.,Feng, Jinqin.,Li, Zhanqing.,Sun, Ruiyu.,Hou, Yu-Tai.,...&Cribb, Maureen.(2017).Potential influences of neglecting aerosol effects on the NCEP GFS precipitation forecast.ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,17(22). |
MLA | Jiang, Mengjiao,et al."Potential influences of neglecting aerosol effects on the NCEP GFS precipitation forecast".ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 17.22(2017). |
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