Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2020GL090699 |
The Impact of COVID‐19 on weather forecasts: a balanced view | |
Bruce Ingleby; Brett Candy; John Eyre; Thomas Haiden; Christopher Hill; Lars Isaksen; Daryl Kleist; Fiona Smith; Peter Steinle; Stewart Taylor; Warren Tennant; Christopher Tingwell | |
2020-12-06 | |
发表期刊 | Geophysical Research Letters |
出版年 | 2020 |
英文摘要 | Aircraft reports are an important source of information for numerical weather prediction (NWP). From March 2020 the COVID‐19 pandemic resulted in a large loss of aircraft data but despite this it is difficult to see any evidence of significant degradation in the forecast skill of global NWP systems. This apparent discrepancy is partly because forecast skill is very variable, showing both day‐to‐day noise and lower frequency dependence on the mean state of the atmosphere. The definitive way to cleanly assess aircraft impact is using a data denial experiment, which shows that the largest impact is in the upper troposphere. The method used by Chen (2020) to estimate the impact of COVID‐19 is oversimplistic. Chen understates the huge importance of satellite data for modern weather forecasts and raises more alarm than necessary about a drop in forecast accuracy. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/305771 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Bruce Ingleby,Brett Candy,John Eyre,等. The Impact of COVID‐19 on weather forecasts: a balanced view[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2020. |
APA | Bruce Ingleby.,Brett Candy.,John Eyre.,Thomas Haiden.,Christopher Hill.,...&Christopher Tingwell.(2020).The Impact of COVID‐19 on weather forecasts: a balanced view.Geophysical Research Letters. |
MLA | Bruce Ingleby,et al."The Impact of COVID‐19 on weather forecasts: a balanced view".Geophysical Research Letters (2020). |
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