Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.5194/acp-18-143-2018 |
Detectability of the impacts of ozone-depleting substances and greenhouse gases upon stratospheric ozone accounting for nonlinearities in historical forcings | |
Bandoro, Justin1; Solomon, Susan1; Santer, Benjamin D.2; Kinnison, Douglas E.3; Mills, Michael J.3 | |
2018-01-05 | |
发表期刊 | ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS |
ISSN | 1680-7316 |
EISSN | 1680-7324 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 18期号:1页码:143-166 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | We perform a formal attribution study of upperand lower-stratospheric ozone changes using observations together with simulations from the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model. Historical model simulations were used to estimate the zonal-mean response patterns ("finger-prints") to combined forcing by ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) and well-mixed greenhouse gases (GHGs), as well as to the individual forcing by each factor. Trends in the similarity between the searched-for fingerprints and homogenized observations of stratospheric ozone were compared to trends in pattern similarity between the fingerprints and the internally and naturally generated variability inferred from long control runs. This yields estimated signal-to-noise (S/N) ratios for each of the three fingerprints (ODS, GHG, and ODS + GHG). In both the upper stratosphere (defined in this paper as 1 to 10 hPa) and lower stratosphere (40 to 100 hPa), the spatial fingerprints of the ODS + GHG and ODS-only patterns were consistently detectable not only during the era of maximum ozone depletion but also throughout the observational record (1984-2016). We also develop a fingerprint attribution method to account for forcings whose time evolutions are markedly nonlinear over the observational record. When the nonlinearity of the time evolution of the ODS and ODS + GHG signals is accounted for, we find that the S/N ratios obtained with the stratospheric ODS and ODS + GHG fingerprints are enhanced relative to standard linear trend analysis. Use of the nonlinear signal detection method also reduces the detection time - the estimate of the date at which ODS and GHG impacts on ozone can be formally identified. Furthermore, by explicitly considering nonlinear signal evolution, the complete observational record can be used in the S/N analysis, without applying piecewise linear regression and introducing arbitrary break points. The GHG-driven fingerprint of ozone changes was not statistically identifiable in either the upper-or lower-stratospheric SWOOSH data, irrespective of the signal detection method used. In the WACCM simulations of future climate change, the GHG signal is statistically identifiable between 2020 and 2030. Our findings demonstrate the importance of continued stratospheric ozone monitoring to improve estimates of the contributions of ODS and GHG forcing to global changes in stratospheric ozone. |
领域 | 地球科学 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000419365200002 |
WOS关键词 | CHEMISTRY-CLIMATE MODEL ; QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATIONS ; SAGE-II ; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY ; THERMAL STRUCTURE ; SOLAR-CYCLE ; DATA SETS ; SATELLITE ; TRENDS ; TEMPERATURE |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/30484 |
专题 | 地球科学 |
作者单位 | 1.MIT, Dept Earth Atmospher & Planetary Sci, 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA; 2.Lawrence Livermore Natl Lab, Program Climate Model Diag & Intercomparison, Livermore, CA 94550 USA; 3.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Atmospher Chem Observat & Modeling Lab, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Bandoro, Justin,Solomon, Susan,Santer, Benjamin D.,et al. Detectability of the impacts of ozone-depleting substances and greenhouse gases upon stratospheric ozone accounting for nonlinearities in historical forcings[J]. ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,2018,18(1):143-166. |
APA | Bandoro, Justin,Solomon, Susan,Santer, Benjamin D.,Kinnison, Douglas E.,&Mills, Michael J..(2018).Detectability of the impacts of ozone-depleting substances and greenhouse gases upon stratospheric ozone accounting for nonlinearities in historical forcings.ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,18(1),143-166. |
MLA | Bandoro, Justin,et al."Detectability of the impacts of ozone-depleting substances and greenhouse gases upon stratospheric ozone accounting for nonlinearities in historical forcings".ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 18.1(2018):143-166. |
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