资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

Mixture of runoff generation processes poses a challenge for predicting upper flood quantiles. We examined transformations of generation processes from all identifiable runoff events to frequent and upper tail floods for a large set of mesoscale catchments and observed a substantial change of the dominant processes. Two trajectories of transformation were detected. In regions where floods occur almost exclusively in winter the dominance of processes related to snowmelt consistently increases from small events to frequent and upper tail floods. In catchments characterized by frequent winter‐spring floods and occasional summer‐autumn flood events triggered by rare meteorological phenomena (e.g., Vb‐cyclones), processes that dominate upper tails are not adequately represented in the sample of frequent floods. Predictions of extremes and projections of flood changes might remain highly uncertain in the latter cases.