Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s10584-016-1679-0 |
The potential impacts of 21st century climatic and population changes on human exposure to the virus vector mosquito Aedes aegypti | |
Monaghan, Andrew J.1; Sampson, K. M.1; Steinhoff, D. F.1; Ernst, K. C.2; Ebi, K. L.3; Jones, B.4; Hayden, M. H.1 | |
2018-02-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE |
ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 146页码:487-500 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | The mosquito Aedes (Ae). aegypti transmits the viruses that cause dengue, chikungunya, Zika and yellow fever. We investigate how choosing alternate emissions and/or socioeconomic pathways may modulate future human exposure to Ae. aegypti. Occurrence patterns for Ae. aegypti for 2061-2080 are mapped globally using empirically downscaled air temperature and precipitation projections from the Community Earth System Model, for the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Population growth is quantified using gridded global population projections consistent with two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), SSP3 and SSP5. Change scenarios are compared to a 1950-2000 reference period. A global land area of 56.9 M km(2) is climatically suitable for Ae. aegypti during the reference period, and is projected to increase by 8 % (RCP4.5) to 13 % (RCP8.5) by 2061-2080. The annual average number of people exposed globally to Ae. aegypti for the reference period is 3794 M, a value projected to statistically significantly increase by 298-460 M (8-12 %) by 2061-2080 if only climate change is considered, and by 4805-5084 M (127-134 %) for SSP3 and 2232-2483 M (59-65 %) for SSP5 considering both climate and population change (lower and upper values of each range represent RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively). Thus, taking the lower-emissions RCP4.5 pathway instead of RCP8.5 may mitigate future human exposure to Ae. aegypti globally, but the effect of population growth on exposure will likely be larger. Regionally, Australia, Europe and North America are projected to have the largest percentage increases in human exposure to Ae. aegypti considering only climate change. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000425120000015 |
WOS关键词 | GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION ; DENGUE-FEVER ; STEGOMYIA AEGYPTI ; CHIKUNGUNYA ; DIPTERA ; TEMPERATURE ; COMPETITION ; CULICIDAE ; MODELS ; SYSTEM |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/30301 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA; 2.Univ Arizona, Coll Publ Hlth, Tucson, AZ 85724 USA; 3.Univ Washington, Sch Publ Hlth, Seattle, WA 98195 USA; 4.CUNY, CUNY Inst Demog Res, New York, NY 10010 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Monaghan, Andrew J.,Sampson, K. M.,Steinhoff, D. F.,et al. The potential impacts of 21st century climatic and population changes on human exposure to the virus vector mosquito Aedes aegypti[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2018,146:487-500. |
APA | Monaghan, Andrew J..,Sampson, K. M..,Steinhoff, D. F..,Ernst, K. C..,Ebi, K. L..,...&Hayden, M. H..(2018).The potential impacts of 21st century climatic and population changes on human exposure to the virus vector mosquito Aedes aegypti.CLIMATIC CHANGE,146,487-500. |
MLA | Monaghan, Andrew J.,et al."The potential impacts of 21st century climatic and population changes on human exposure to the virus vector mosquito Aedes aegypti".CLIMATIC CHANGE 146(2018):487-500. |
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