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DOI | 10.1007/s10584-017-1906-3 |
Investigating differences between event-as-class and probability density-based attribution statements with emerging climate change | |
Harrington, Luke J. | |
2017-04-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE |
ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 141期号:4 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | New Zealand |
英文摘要 | There is significant public and scientific interest in understanding whether and to what extent the severity and frequency of extreme events have increased in response to human influences on the climate system. As the science underpinning the field of event attribution continues to rapidly develop, there are growing expectations of faster and more accurate attribution statements to be delivered, even in the days to weeks after an extreme event occurs. As the research community looks to respond, a variety of approaches have been suggested, each with varying levels of conditioning to the observed state of the climate when the event of interest has occurred. One such approach to utilise unconditioned multi-model ensembles requires pre-computing estimates of the change in probability of occurrence for a wide range of possible 'events'. In this study, we consider differences between event-as-class attribution statements with changes in the probability density of the distribution at the event threshold of interest. For the majority of extreme event attribution studies, it is likely that the two metrics are comparable once uncertainty estimates are considered. However, results show these two metrics can produce divergent answers from each other for moderate climatological anomalies if the present-day climate distribution experiences a substantial change in the underlying signal-to-noise ratio. As the emergent signals of climate change becomes increasingly clear, this study highlights the need for clear and explicit framing in the context of applying pre-computed attribution statements, particularly if attribution perspectives are to be included within the framework of future climate services. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000396826200004 |
WOS关键词 | EXTREME-WEATHER ; PRECIPITATION ; FRAMEWORK |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/30291 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Victoria Univ Wellington, New Zealand Climate Change Res Inst, Sch Geog Environm & Earth Sci, Wellington 6012, New Zealand |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Harrington, Luke J.. Investigating differences between event-as-class and probability density-based attribution statements with emerging climate change[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2017,141(4). |
APA | Harrington, Luke J..(2017).Investigating differences between event-as-class and probability density-based attribution statements with emerging climate change.CLIMATIC CHANGE,141(4). |
MLA | Harrington, Luke J.."Investigating differences between event-as-class and probability density-based attribution statements with emerging climate change".CLIMATIC CHANGE 141.4(2017). |
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