Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s10584-017-1944-x |
Using second-order approximation to incorporate GCM uncertainty in climate change impact assessments | |
Eghdamirad, Sajjad; Johnson, Fiona; Sharma, Ashish | |
2017-05-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE |
ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 142 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Australia |
英文摘要 | This study presents a method to incorporate uncertainty of climate variables in climate change impact assessments, where the uncertainty being considered refers to the divergence of general circulation model (GCM) projections. The framework assesses how much bias occurs when the uncertainties of climate variables are ignored. The proposed method is based on the second-order expansion of Taylor series, called second-order approximation (SOA). SOA addresses the bias which occurs by assuming the expected value of a function is equal to the function of the expected value of the predictors. This assumption is not valid for nonlinear systems, such as in the case of the relationship of climate variables to streamflow. To investigate the value of SOA in the climate change context, statistical downscaling models for monthly streamflow were set up for six hydrologic reference stations in Australia which cover contrasting hydro-climate regions. It is shown that in all locations SOA makes the largest difference for low flows and changes the overall mean flow by 1-3%. Another advantage of the SOA approach is that the individual contribution of each climate variable to the total difference can be estimated. It is found that geopotential height and specific humidity cause more bias than wind speeds in the downscaling models considered here. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000400095700004 |
WOS关键词 | CIRCULATION MODEL OUTPUTS ; 2ND MOMENT METHOD ; VECTOR MACHINE ; SUPPORT VECTOR ; CATCHMENT STREAMFLOWS ; SOIL-MOISTURE ; 1ST-ORDER ; PROJECTIONS ; FLOW ; PRECIPITATION |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/30260 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Univ New South Wales, Sch Civil & Environm Engn, Kensington, NSW 2052, Australia |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Eghdamirad, Sajjad,Johnson, Fiona,Sharma, Ashish. Using second-order approximation to incorporate GCM uncertainty in climate change impact assessments[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2017,142. |
APA | Eghdamirad, Sajjad,Johnson, Fiona,&Sharma, Ashish.(2017).Using second-order approximation to incorporate GCM uncertainty in climate change impact assessments.CLIMATIC CHANGE,142. |
MLA | Eghdamirad, Sajjad,et al."Using second-order approximation to incorporate GCM uncertainty in climate change impact assessments".CLIMATIC CHANGE 142(2017). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论