Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s10584-017-2045-6 |
Fire weather and likelihood: characterizing climate space for fire occurrence and extent in Puerto Rico | |
Van Beusekom, Ashley E.1; Gould, William A.1; Monmany, A. Carolina2; Khalyani, Azad Henareh3; Quinones, Maya1; Fain, Stephen J.1; Andrade-Nunez, Maria Jose4; Gonzalez, Grizelle1 | |
2018 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE |
ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 146页码:117-131 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; Argentina |
英文摘要 | Assessing the relationships between weather patterns and the likelihood of fire occurrence in the Caribbean has not been as central to climate change research as in temperate regions, due in part to the smaller extent of individual fires. However, the cumulative effect of small frequent fires can shape large landscapes, and fire-prone ecosystems are abundant in the tropics. Climate change has the potential to greatly expand fire-prone areas to moist and wet tropical forests and grasslands that have been traditionally less fire-prone, and to extend and create more temporal variability in fire seasons. We built a machine learning random forest classifier to analyze the relationship between climatic, socio-economic, and fire history data with fire occurrence and extent for the years 2003-2011 in Puerto Rico, nearly 35,000 fires. Using classifiers based on climate measurements alone, we found that the climate space is a reliable associate, if not a predictor, of fire occurrence and extent in this environment. We found a strong relationship between occurrence and a change from average weather conditions, and between extent and severity of weather conditions. The probability that the random forest classifiers will rank a positive example higher than a negative example is 0.8-0.89 in the classifiers for deciding if a fire occurs, and 0.64-0.69 in the classifiers for deciding if the fire is greater than 5 ha. Future climate projections of extreme seasons indicate increased potential for fire occurrence with larger extents. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000423707600010 |
WOS关键词 | FUTURE CLIMATE ; FOREST-FIRES ; WILDFIRE ; VEGETATION ; DRIVERS ; ISLANDS ; MODELS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/30232 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.US Forest Serv, USDA, Int Inst Trop Forestry, Rio Piedras, PR 00926 USA; 2.Univ Nacl Tucuman, CONICET, Inst Ecol Reg, San Miguel De Tucuman, Argentina; 3.Colorado State Univ, Dept Ecosyst Sci & Sustainabil, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA; 4.Univ Puerto Rico, Dept Environm Sci, Rio Piedras, PR USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Van Beusekom, Ashley E.,Gould, William A.,Monmany, A. Carolina,et al. Fire weather and likelihood: characterizing climate space for fire occurrence and extent in Puerto Rico[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2018,146:117-131. |
APA | Van Beusekom, Ashley E..,Gould, William A..,Monmany, A. Carolina.,Khalyani, Azad Henareh.,Quinones, Maya.,...&Gonzalez, Grizelle.(2018).Fire weather and likelihood: characterizing climate space for fire occurrence and extent in Puerto Rico.CLIMATIC CHANGE,146,117-131. |
MLA | Van Beusekom, Ashley E.,et al."Fire weather and likelihood: characterizing climate space for fire occurrence and extent in Puerto Rico".CLIMATIC CHANGE 146(2018):117-131. |
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