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DOI | 10.1007/s10584-016-1809-8 |
Emulating mean patterns and variability of temperature across and within scenarios in anthropogenic climate change experiments | |
Alexeeff, Stacey E.1; Nychka, Doug1; Sain, Stephan R.1; Tebaldi, Claudia2 | |
2018-02-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE |
ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 146页码:319-333 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | There are many climate change scenarios that are of interest to explore by climate models, but computational power limits the total number of model runs. Pattern scaling is a useful approach to approximate mean changes in climate model projections, and we extend this methodology to build a climate model emulator that also accounts for variability of temperature projections at the seasonal scale. Using 30 runs from the NCAR/DOE CESM1 large initial condition ensemble for RCP8.5 from 2006 to 2080, we fit a pattern scaling model to grid-specific seasonal average temperature change. We then use this fitted model to emulate seasonal average temperature change for the RCP4.5 scenario based on its global average temperature trend. By using a linear mixed-effects model and carefully resampling the residuals from the RCP8.5 model, we emulate the variability of RCP4.5 and allow the variability to depend on global average temperature. Specifically, we emulate both the internal variability affecting the long-term trends across initial condition ensemble members, and the variability superimposed on the long-term trend within individual ensemble members. The 15 initial condition ensemble members available for RCP4.5 from the same climate model are then used to validate the emulator. We view this approach as a step forward in providing relevant climate information for avoided impacts studies, and more broadly for impact models, since we allow both forced changes and internal variability to play a role in determining future impact risks. |
英文关键词 | Initial condition ensemble Internal variability Pattern scaling Emulator |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000425120000004 |
WOS关键词 | MODEL ; FUTURE ; AGRICULTURE ; LIMITATIONS ; IMPACTS ; EUROPE |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/30214 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Inst Math Appl Geosci, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA; 2.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Climate & Global Dynam Lab, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Alexeeff, Stacey E.,Nychka, Doug,Sain, Stephan R.,et al. Emulating mean patterns and variability of temperature across and within scenarios in anthropogenic climate change experiments[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2018,146:319-333. |
APA | Alexeeff, Stacey E.,Nychka, Doug,Sain, Stephan R.,&Tebaldi, Claudia.(2018).Emulating mean patterns and variability of temperature across and within scenarios in anthropogenic climate change experiments.CLIMATIC CHANGE,146,319-333. |
MLA | Alexeeff, Stacey E.,et al."Emulating mean patterns and variability of temperature across and within scenarios in anthropogenic climate change experiments".CLIMATIC CHANGE 146(2018):319-333. |
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