Africa Reacts to the U.S. Presidential Election

November 6, 2020

In our “Africa Reacts” series, the CSIS Africa Program asks prominent African journalists, civil society activists, and thought leaders to share their analysis on the U.S. presidential election process. Sub-Saharan Africa has not featured prominently in presidential campaigns, but the outcome of the election will have important ramifications for U.S. policy toward the region. By flipping the script—featuring African analysts’ views on U.S. politics rather than U.S. analysts’ opinions on African developments—we are seeking to start a new conversation about the future of U.S.-African relations.

In our seventh edition, top African analysts react to the big day(s) of the U.S. presidential election. Many noted that the election outcome would determine the fate of U.S. democracy for years to come. Others argued that President Trump has nowhere near the same amount of control over state institutions as leaders in some African countries, such as Tanzania, which just experienced a highly rigged vote. Some analysts emphasized the possibility of election violence in a country that has funded democracy programming across Africa for decades. Last, many expressed shock at the closeness of the race and the willingness of many Americans to support a leader who has not prioritized human rights, climate change, anti-racism, and gender equality.

Read the first, second, third, fourth, fifth, and sixth installments of our Africa Reacts series.

The contributions in this commentary have been edited by the CSIS Africa Program for brevity and clarity. Unlike past editions, the contributions are organized by time of submission, not alphabetically, to capture the changing dynamics between Tuesday, November 3, and Friday, November 6.

Tuesday, November 3, 5:26 p.m. ET

Fatma Karume, Tanzanian Lawyer (@fatma_karume)

As someone who has witnessed the death of a transitional democracy in Tanzania, I am bemused by the often repeated description of the 2020 U.S. election as “critical for the survival of democracy.” I am not disputing Trump’s authoritarian tendencies and his strongman persona. He may not like to display his pectoral muscles like Vladimir Putin, but he does not shy away from exercising his presidential hire-and-fire powers. He has been through four chiefs of staff in four years compared to Barack Obama’s five chiefs of staff in his eight years in the White House. The rate at which Trump dispenses key staff, his unfiltered language, and his disregard for science in favor of bleach in the fight against Covid-19 is reminiscent of presidential behavior on a continent he reportedly described as being comprised of “shithole countries,” including my own, but let’s give the devil his due.

Coincidentally Tanzania had a general election on October 28, 2020. The National Electoral Commission (NEC) stuffed the rafters with presidential appointees, ensuring the ruling party won seats by disqualifying opposition candidates before a single ballot was cast. Police teargassed opposition campaigns, opposition candidates were injuncted from campaigning, and others were arrested and imprisoned. On election day, ballot stuffing in favor of the incumbent was de rigueur. The NEC announced Magufuli had won 84 percent of the popular vote, and his party 99 percent of parliamentary seats. The opposition refused to recognize the results and the general public looked on in quiet astonishment, as the army and police force took over our streets. No Tanzanian can challenge Magufuli’s presidency in a court of law as the Constitution bars such a challenge. Magufuli is our president for the next five years, evidence of ballot stuffing or not.

A world away, Joe Biden has his lawyers primed to challenge Trump, and Trump stands at the ready to fire. Biden’s campaign was not punctured with teargas or sabotaged by the state. The fact that Trump is refusing to say he will concede defeat does not pose an existential threat to American democracy. He is just posturing, and it means nothing in a system in which Trump does not control the people who count the votes, nor the courts. When it comes to destroying democracies, Trump is definitely not the most effective; he has much to learn from leaders of some of our “shithole countries.”

Wednesday, November 4, 8:10 a.m. ET

Ibrahim Al-bakri Nyei, Liberian Political Analyst and Researcher (@Ibnyei)

It has been a long night of uncertainty and anxiety. We are all following the results to know who's going to be the next president of the United States, and based on their campaign pledges, we will have some indication about the direction of various aspects of U.S. policy regarding multilateralism, environment, trade, and other high priority issues. I have particularly been following to see how the returns confirm or challenge the pre-election polling. Voters are torn mostly between the economy and coronavirus response. Some polls suggest that the majority of those who voted for Trump did so because of his record on the economy, while those who voted for Biden did so in response to Trump's terrible record in fighting the coronavirus epidemic.

Can we learn anything from this for African elections? Yes. We can elevate policy debates to enable voters to make informed choices and reduce the risks associated with elections fought around tribal and factional divisions. Something is not lost on me. Trump is seeking to exploit the United States’ racial and immigration issues to shape the election in his favor or discredit it entirely. I woke up this morning to news that he has prematurely declared himself winner and has called for a stop to counting in some states. We don't know yet how his supporters will react to this whining, but there are concerns that they might resort to violence. This is dangerous for a country like the United States, which prides itself on its record of a stable and competitive democracy. The Trump presidency has given analysts a run for their money. Whatever the outcome, this election will be recorded as one the most controversial elections in U.S. history, in part because of the constraints imposed by the coronavirus, and in part because an incumbent tried to exploit to his advantage.

Wednesday, November 4, 9:57 a.m. ET

Sophie Mbugua, Kenyan Environmental Journalist and Africa Climate Conversations Podcast Producer (@Smbuguah)

On November 4, 2020, the second-largest greenhouse gas emitter globally—the United States—legally left the Paris Climate Agreement. The same day that the United States was supposed to choose its president for the next four years. At the same time, climate-related disasters have intensified with an average of 60,000 deaths per year over the past two decades. The global temperatures have risen tremendously, negatively impacting economies, biodiversity, and socially and mentally impacting communities. The effects of climate change—floods, droughts, cyclones, and landslides—have intensified. More than ever, the world needs to come together as a global community to safeguard the ecosystems we have today and ensure our children's future.

The United States’ choice of president plays a critical role and has huge global consequences. The result will determine whether the country rejoins the climate talks or if it merely retains a seat at the talks for the next four years. A threat to weaken the Paris Agreement implementation measures undercuts the tenacity by which other countries cut their emissions. It’s time to raise ambition, implement drastic measures to reduce greenhouse gasses, and avoid backsliding on progress we have already made.

Wednesday November 4, 11:00 a.m. ET

Ousmane Aly Diallo, Researcher for Francophone West Africa, Amnesty International West and Central Africa Regional Office (@Usmaan_Aali)

Barack Obama famously said in 2009 before the Ghanaian Parliament that “Africa [did] not need strongmen, it need[ed] strong institutions.” Eleven years after this seminal speech, it seems that the strength of the American institutions that have been stressed during the last four years will be put to a rest test in the upcoming weeks, as the electoral results continue to trickle in [or not].

I woke up at 2:30 a.m. Dakar time to see the early results of the U.S. elections. This was odd as I was not particularly following this electoral campaign. Since against all predictions (once again), the results were tighter than expected, I returned to bed hoping that by the morning, we would know more about who won the race. Disappointed again, but this is where it gets interesting.

Over the course of the night, President Trump has declared himself winner and has roused his partisans about possible electoral fraud—through the continuation of votes—that could reverse this result. But this behavior is not unfamiliar to West Africans. Recently in Guinea, candidates claimed victory before the discredited Electoral Commission’s provisional results. In Côte d’Ivoire, they contested the boycotted polls and proclaimed transitional arrangements.

It is interesting to see how the electoral outcome will define U.S. policy in Africa. President Trump has had a “benign disinterest” in the continent, mainly focusing on countering Chinese and other emerging actors’ influence in economic and military affairs. In this regard, Africa occupies a marginal role as a battleground in the United States’ global rivalry against China. Trump has mentioned Africa in speeches or tweets in the context of land issues in South Africa or the Tongo-Tongo ambush, which was equated to Obama and Clinton’s “Benghazi moment.” The turmoil in the U.S. State Department has not spared the continent, with the absence of an assistant secretary of state for African affairs for most of 2017 and early 2018. Now, Biden hasn’t shared much on his perspectives on Africa. He may return to the rhetoric on justice, human rights, democracy, and good governance, but nothing guarantees that he would prioritize principles against realpolitik. Africa deserves to be seen beyond the prism of the United States’ global strategic battles. All over in the continent, youths have risen to denounce police brutality and violations to freedom of speech and assembly. But whether they will find an attentive ear and a committed friend in Washington, beyond the rhetoric, is still unknown.

Wednesday, November 4, 3:11 p.m. ET

Aanu Adeoye, Mail & Guardian (@aanuadeoye)

Just a day before the United States went to the polls, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo called on Tanzanian authorities to "fully address" election irregularities. At the time it seemed rich given President Donald Trump had not committed to a peaceful transfer of power should he lose to Democratic candidate Joe Biden. The tweet looked even worse a few hours after that, when Trump declared victory and falsely claimed the election was being stolen. If this happened elsewhere around the world, the United States would be the first to admonish a leader going rogue, as Pompeo just did. Even as it seems like Biden is about to win, the United States’ standing over the last four years has taken a battering, and it remains to be seen just how an incoming Biden administration would mend relations across the world, especially in Africa, where the Trump administration has not paid much attention to issues on the continent.

Wednesday, November 4, 3:45 p.m. ET

Mwanahamisi Singano, FEMNET, African Women's Development and Communication Network (@MSalimu)

Coming from witnessing and participating in elections in Tanzania, where all state apparatus were deployed to secure a win for president seeking reelection, it is refreshing to see the opposite in United States: the president seeking reelection constantly claiming rigging against him.

While there is still optimism that Biden might win, I am personally surprised that the race is so close. I would have assumed, with all Trump has displayed and done the past four years, it would have been a clear choice, a consensus of some sort that Americans and the world deserve better. What we are seeing and learning is how deep and engrained extreme right-wing beliefs are embedded in American society and a clear desire and commitment to make those beliefs part of public policies and public life.

Americans are not only voting for presidents as individual candidates, they are voting for fundamental issues: human rights, climate change, equality, anti-racism, gender equality, and the list goes on. For Americans to call themselves leaders of the free world, these issues should not be up for debate. It is sad to see millions of Americans voting for leaders who stand against these fundamental issues.

Last, the U.S. election reminds us, one more time, that strong man politics and populist leadership are happening in developed countries, not just the developing world.

Thursday, November 5, 5:54 a.m. ET

Mehari Taddele Maru, School of Transnational Governance and Migration Policy Centre, European University Institute (@DrMehari)

Millions of Africans are watching the U.S. elections with a mixture of amazement and apprehension. What does the U.S. election mean for Africans? One lesson to be drawn from widespread media speculation about potential degeneration into election dispute and violence in the United States is that such outcomes are not confined to Africa; even the United States is not immune. Moreover, febrile predictions of profound political differences in the United States taking a violent turn come at a time when African countries are undergoing difficulties of their own that are considered deflationary to democratization efforts. Ethiopia’s experiment with democratic constitutional federalism is now heading to a civil war; the governments of democratic countries in Africa, such as Tanzania, are experiencing election-related violence; and other regional powers whose leaders have appeared to enjoy overwhelming popular support at the beginning of their term, like in Nigeria and Ethiopia, are facing widespread violence and serious challenges to their political legitimacy.

A significant number of Africans view the possibility of President Trump’s reelection with trepidation, having observed his record of assaults on multilateralism and his attempts to use multilateral organizations such as the World Health Organization as tools in U.S. domestic power politics. Trump’s penchant for deliberately deepening hostility between the great global powers also has serious repercussions for Africa.

At a time when Africa is facing multiple, mutually reinforcing crises (e.g., the Covid-19 pandemic, instability partially attributable to competition between global powers, and unauthorized interference from rival regional powers in Libya, the Horn of Africa, and other places), the continent desperately needs the restoration of multilateralism and predictable and fair global leadership to tame the aberrant behavior of some states and also allow African voices to be heard. It would be unlikely to see such an outcome from a Trump reelection. Not only has Trump failed to provide this kind of leadership, but by his crass words and actions he has deliberately introduced volatility into the multilateral system, an approach that presumably he considers to the advantage of the United States whatever its impact on other, less prosperous and powerful nations. With the higher possibility of Biden win, it is now hoped that the U.S. government will restore its faith and leadership in multilateralism, which benefits continents like Africa.

Thursday, November 5, 8:02 a.m. ET

Fola Aina, Doctoral Fellow, African Leadership Centre, King’s College London, University of London (@folanski)

As the world eagerly awaits the official results of the U.S. presidential elections, there is no doubt there will be significant implications for U.S.-Africa relations regardless of who emerges as the winner. Three most significant areas of concern include the future of democracy on the African continent, the prospects of peace and security on the continent, and, last but not the least, the crucial issue of immigration.

Under the leadership of President Trump, the values of liberal democracy have been corroded and political interests of U.S. allies, including those in African states, have been undermined. This has impacted the moral justification for the United States to act as a bastion of democratic ideals and principles and to export this ideology to Africa. Another four years of a Trump presidency would encourage Africa’s sit-tight rulers to negate constitutionalism, the rule of law, and separation of powers. A Biden presidency has the potential to address these setbacks and demand better accountability and transparency from African leaders through diplomatic channels.

President Trump’s national security policy toward Africa also demonstrates a passiveness to address the root drivers of violent extremism on the continent. It has failed to prioritize issues such as poor governance, which creates vacuums that violent extremist groups continue to exploit. A Biden presidency would likely ensure that the United States works closely with its African partners in areas of mutual security concerns without further jeopardizing the gains that have been made in pursuit of peace and security across the continent.

Another four years of the Trump administration would result in an expansion of severe immigration policies that affect potential African migrants seeking education or better opportunities in the United States. In the past four years, President Trump has clamped down on immigration policy that favored Africans. A Biden presidency, on the other hand, would potentially ease up on U.S. immigration policy, encouraging more African’s to migrate to the United States for work and education.

Whoever emerges winner of the elections would need to pay closer attention to U.S.-Africa relations by urgently seeking to reconcile mutual interests in the areas of democracy, peace and security, and immigration. Failure to do so could have irreparable consequences.

Thursday, November 5, 12:51 p.m. ET

Alemayehu Weldemariam, Contributor, Ethiopia Insight; Lecturer-in-Law, Mekelle University (@AlemayehuFentaw)

At no other time has the potential reelection of a president posed a challenge to the peace and security of the United States than now. Trump has proved himself not only a spoiler of domestic stability, but also of regional and international peace. Recently, he went on record telling the Sudanese and Israeli leaders in a telephone conversation that Egypt will end up blowing up the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), Ethiopia’s mega hydroelectric power project on the Nile.

With Trump’s presidency, the United States has stopped being a power non-Western countries look to during peace talks and diplomatic efforts. The outcome of this election determines the fate of democracy in the United States as well as democratization efforts around the world. This has been a battle for the soul of the nation and democracy itself. Am I hoping against hope to see Joe Biden declare victory or Donald Trump concede defeat with grace? The virtue of democracy isn’t so much in the outcome as in the procedure.

The challenge now seems to maintain that peace as protests and rallies inevitably follow after a clear winner emerges by the end of the week. However, on a substantive note, whoever wins in the end might be irrelevant as long as democracy is about choosing, not about who is chosen.

Yet, the fact that it is even this close is depressing enough. As expected, Trump has prematurely claimed an electoral victory in hope of preventing the counting of the remaining ballots, accusing Democrats of trying to “steal” the election as poll officials still count legitimate votes. Unmasking his motives, he probably was signaling to the U.S. Supreme Court justices he has appointed to intervene to stop the process. The lesson to countries around the world is dark and sinister. While we were all distracted by the Western world’s most powerful scene, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed of Ethiopia gave his troops the marching order to rain bullets on Tigray region. Alas, when Abiy couldn’t settle a conflict at the ballot box, he chose the bullet.

Friday, November 6, 3:25 a.m. ET

David Hundeyin, Nigerian Journalist (@DavidHundeyin)

My biggest impression is that of a country suffering from a fundamental divide that may not actually be bridgeable. The turnout is the largest in at least two generations, and yet the result does not look to be in any way decisive.

Taking into account the reality that the election was largely fought on the basis of racial identity politics of the sort I am very familiar with over here in Nigeria, this speaks to a division that is no longer just political or cultural, but also civilizational. The United States is now essentially two different countries struggling against each other to impose their vision of what it should be.

From an African and specifically Nigerian point of view, President Trump's insistence on using a scorched earth approach to politicking is very bad news indeed. The United States has always been a very important moderating influence on the excesses of Africa's existing and budding dictatorships. By discrediting the independent electoral system and all but openly inciting his supporters to violence, Trump's actions serve to legitimize the worst parts of Africa's struggles with electoral democracy. Ultimately, I hope that Joe Biden, if he does win, will reassert the United States’ global commitment to promoting democracy and will ignore the predictable wall of faux indignation from the usual suspects accusing it of hypocrisy.

I also hope that the United States’ legal and regulatory systems will actually take on Donald Trump and ensure that he pays for at least some of the very open illegalities he has been responsible for, because that in itself would send a very powerful message to the developing world about the primacy of systems and processes over individuals.

If you are interested in contributing to future Africa Reacts commentaries on major U.S. political events, please email CSIS Africa Program Research Associate Marielle Harris (mharris@csis.org).

Commentary is produced by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a private, tax-exempt institution focusing on international public policy issues. Its research is nonpartisan and nonproprietary. CSIS does not take specific policy positions. Accordingly, all views, positions, and conclusions expressed in this publication should be understood to be solely those of the author(s).

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