Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s10584-017-1925-0 |
Divergent trends in ecosystem services under different climate-management futures in a fire-prone forest landscape | |
Halofsky, Joshua S.1; Halofsky, Jessica E.2; Hemstrom, Miles A.3,4; Morzillo, Anita T.5; Zhou, Xiaoping4; Donato, Daniel C.1,2 | |
2017-05-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE |
ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 142 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | While ecosystem services and climate change are often examined independently, quantitative assessments integrating these fields are needed to inform future land management decisions. Using climate-informed state-and-transition simulations, we examined projected trends and tradeoffs for a suite of ecosystem services under four climate change scenarios and two management scenarios (active management emphasizing fuel treatments and no management other than fire suppression) in a fire-prone landscape of dry and moist mixed-conifer forests in central Oregon, USA. Focal ecosystem services included fire potential (regulating service), timber volume (provisioning service), and potential wildlife habitat (supporting service). Projections without climate change suggested active management in dry mixed-conifer forests would create more open forest structures, reduce crown fire potential, and maintain timber stocks, while in moist mixed-conifer forests, active management would reduce crown fire potential but at the expense of timber stocks. When climate change was considered, however, trends in most ecosystem services changed substantially, with large increases in wildfire area predominating broad-scale trends in outputs, regardless of management approach (e.g., strong declines in timber stocks and habitat for closed-forest wildlife species). Active management still had an influence under a changing climate, but as a moderator of the strong climate-driven trends rather than being a principal driver of ecosystem service outputs. These results suggest projections of future ecosystem services that do not consider climate change may result in unrealistic expectations of benefits. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000400095700007 |
WOS关键词 | CENTRAL OREGON ; UNITED-STATES ; MEGA-FIRES ; USA ; TEMPERATE ; SCENARIOS ; IMPACTS ; REGIMES ; MODEL |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/30203 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Washington State Dept Nat Resources, 1111 Washington St SE,POB 47014, Olympia, WA 98504 USA; 2.Univ Washington, Sch Environm & Forest Sci, POB 352100, Seattle, WA 98195 USA; 3.Portland State Univ, Inst Nat Resources, POB 751, Portland, OR 97207 USA; 4.US Forest Serv, USDA, Pacific Northwest Res Stn, 620 SW Main,Suite 400, Portland, OR 97205 USA; 5.Univ Connecticut, Dept Nat Resources & Environm, 1376 Storrs Rd, Storrs, CT 06269 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Halofsky, Joshua S.,Halofsky, Jessica E.,Hemstrom, Miles A.,et al. Divergent trends in ecosystem services under different climate-management futures in a fire-prone forest landscape[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2017,142. |
APA | Halofsky, Joshua S.,Halofsky, Jessica E.,Hemstrom, Miles A.,Morzillo, Anita T.,Zhou, Xiaoping,&Donato, Daniel C..(2017).Divergent trends in ecosystem services under different climate-management futures in a fire-prone forest landscape.CLIMATIC CHANGE,142. |
MLA | Halofsky, Joshua S.,et al."Divergent trends in ecosystem services under different climate-management futures in a fire-prone forest landscape".CLIMATIC CHANGE 142(2017). |
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