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DOI | 10.1007/s10584-018-2252-9 |
Behind the veil of extreme event attribution | |
Jezequel, Aglae1,2; Depoues, Vivian3,4,5; Guillemot, Helene6; Trolliet, Melodie7; Vanderlinden, Jean-Paul5; Yiou, Pascal1,2 | |
2018-08-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE |
ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 149页码:367-383 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | France |
英文摘要 | Since Allen (Nature 421(6926):891-892, 2003)'s seminal article, the community of extreme event attribution (EEA) has grown to maturity. Several approaches have been developed: the main ones are the "risk-based approach" - estimating how the probability of event occurrence correlates with climate change - and the "storyline approach" - evaluating the influence of climate change on thermodynamic processes leading to the event. In this article, we map the ways to frame attribution used in a collection of 105 case studies from five BAMS (Bulletin of American Meteorological Society) special issues on extreme events. In order to do so, we propose to define EEA, based on two corpora of interviews conducted with researchers working in the field, as follows: EEA is the ensemble of scientific ways to interpret the question "was this event influenced by climate change?" and answer it. In order to break down the subtleties of EEA, we decompose this initial question into three main problems a researcher has to deal with when framing an EEA case study. First, one needs to define the event of interest. Then, one has to propose a way to link the extreme event with climate change, and the subsequent level of conditioning to parameters of interest. Finally, one has to determine how to represent climate change. We provide a complete classification of BAMS case studies according to those three problems. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000443398900007 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; NATURAL VARIABILITY ; WEATHER ; RECORD ; AUSTRALIA ; SUMMER ; HEAT ; TEMPERATURES ; STATEMENTS ; CALIFORNIA |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/30189 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.CEA CNRS UVSQ, UMR 8212, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, IPSL, F-91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France; 2.U Paris Saclay, CEA Orme Merisiers, F-91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France; 3.ADEME, 20 Ave Gresille, F-49000 Angers, France; 4.I4CE Inst Climate Econ, 24 Ave Marceau, F-75008 Paris, France; 5.OVSQ Univ Versailles St Quentin en Yvelines, CEARC, 11 Blvd Alembert, F-78280 Guyancourt, France; 6.CNRS, Ctr Alexandre Koyre, 27 Rue Damesme, F-75013 Paris, France; 7.PSL Res Univ, OIE, Ctr Observat Impacts Energy, MINES ParisTech, Sophia Antipolis, France |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Jezequel, Aglae,Depoues, Vivian,Guillemot, Helene,et al. Behind the veil of extreme event attribution[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2018,149:367-383. |
APA | Jezequel, Aglae,Depoues, Vivian,Guillemot, Helene,Trolliet, Melodie,Vanderlinden, Jean-Paul,&Yiou, Pascal.(2018).Behind the veil of extreme event attribution.CLIMATIC CHANGE,149,367-383. |
MLA | Jezequel, Aglae,et al."Behind the veil of extreme event attribution".CLIMATIC CHANGE 149(2018):367-383. |
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