Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s10584-017-1914-3 |
Identifying the effect of climate variability on communal conflict through randomization | |
Nordkvelle, Jonas1; Rustad, Siri Aas1; Salmivalli, Monika2 | |
2017-04-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE |
ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 141期号:4 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Norway |
英文摘要 | In recent years, the focus of quantitative climate-conflict research has shifted from studying civil wars to studying different types of conflicts, particularly non-state and communal conflicts, based on the argument that these local-level conflicts are a more likely consequence of climate variability than civil war. However, the findings from previous research do not paint a consistent picture of the relationship between climate and communal conflict. We posit that a research design treating the climate variable as randomized is a better and more convincing strategy for estimating the relationship between climate variability and communal conflict compared to the conventional control method to account for confounders. In this paper, we ask two questions: (1) what type of research design allows us to treat climate variability as randomized and (2) what can we say about the relationship between climate variability and communal violence using this new design? To answer these questions, we analyze six large subnational areas, at a monthly time scale, and calculate the standardized precipitation index for each area for each month. We find that both short, unusually dry intervals and long, unusually wet intervals increase the likelihood of a communal conflict event. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000396826200003 |
WOS关键词 | CIVIL CONFLICT ; VIOLENT CONFLICT ; VULNERABILITY ; RAINFALL ; SHOCKS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/30184 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Peace Res Inst Oslo, Oslo, Norway; 2.Norwegian Univ Life Sci, As, Norway |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Nordkvelle, Jonas,Rustad, Siri Aas,Salmivalli, Monika. Identifying the effect of climate variability on communal conflict through randomization[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2017,141(4). |
APA | Nordkvelle, Jonas,Rustad, Siri Aas,&Salmivalli, Monika.(2017).Identifying the effect of climate variability on communal conflict through randomization.CLIMATIC CHANGE,141(4). |
MLA | Nordkvelle, Jonas,et al."Identifying the effect of climate variability on communal conflict through randomization".CLIMATIC CHANGE 141.4(2017). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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