Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s10584-017-2021-1 |
Potential impact of climate change on streamflow of major Ethiopian rivers | |
Gizaw, Mesgana Seyoum1; Biftu, Getu Fana2; Gan, Thian Yew1; Moges, Semu Ayalew3; Koivusalo, Harri4 | |
2017-08-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE |
ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 143 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Canada; Ethiopia; Finland |
英文摘要 | In this study, HSPF (Hydrologic Simulation Program-FORTRAN) was used to analyze the potential impact of climate change on the streamflow of four major river basins in Ethiopia: Awash, Baro, Genale, and Tekeze. The calibrated and validated HSPF model was forced with daily climate data of 10 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) Global Climate Models (GCMs) for the 1971-2000 control period and the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate projections of 2041-2070 (2050s) and 2071-2100 (2080s). The ensemble median of these 10 GCMs projects the temperature in the four study areas to increase by about 2.3 degrees C (3.3 degrees C) in 2050s (2080s), whereas the mean annual precipitation is projected to increase by about 6% (9%) in 2050s (2080s). This results in about 3% (6%) increase in the projected annual streamflow in Awash, Baro, and Tekeze rivers whereas the annual streamflow of Genale river is projected to increase by about 18% (33%) in the 2050s (2080s). However, such projected increase in the mean annual streamflow due to increasing precipitation over Ethiopia contradicts the decreasing trends in mean annual precipitation observed in recent decades. Regional climate models of high resolutions could provide more realistic climate projections for Ethiopia's complex topography, thus reducing the uncertainties in future streamflow projections. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000407170600007 |
WOS关键词 | BASIN |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/30181 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Alberta, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Edmonton, AB T6G 1H9, Canada; 2.Golder Associates, Calgary, AB, Canada; 3.Addis Ababa Univ, Sch Civil & Environm Engn, AAIT, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia; 4.Aalto Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Sch Engn, Aalto, Finland |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Gizaw, Mesgana Seyoum,Biftu, Getu Fana,Gan, Thian Yew,et al. Potential impact of climate change on streamflow of major Ethiopian rivers[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2017,143. |
APA | Gizaw, Mesgana Seyoum,Biftu, Getu Fana,Gan, Thian Yew,Moges, Semu Ayalew,&Koivusalo, Harri.(2017).Potential impact of climate change on streamflow of major Ethiopian rivers.CLIMATIC CHANGE,143. |
MLA | Gizaw, Mesgana Seyoum,et al."Potential impact of climate change on streamflow of major Ethiopian rivers".CLIMATIC CHANGE 143(2017). |
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