Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102191 |
Anticipating futures through models: the rise of Integrated Assessment Modelling in the climate science-policy interface since 1970 | |
Lisette van Beek, Maarten Hajer, Peter Pelzer, Detlef van Vuuren, Christophe Cassen | |
2020-11-02 | |
发表期刊 | Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions
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出版年 | 2020 |
英文摘要 | Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) have gained a prominent role in the climate science-policy interface. The article reconstructs the evolution of IAMs and their changing role in this interface, investigating how and why IAMs have become so prominent. Based on literature analysis, quantitative document analysis and semi-structured interviews, we describe the historic evolution of the interactions between IAMs and policy-making between 1970 and 2015. We identify five historic phases in which IAMs played distinct mediating roles between science and policy, succeeding to adjust their scenario efforts to the continuously changing demands for knowledge from the policy community. In explaining the prominent role of IAMs, we differentiate between background conditions (material and sociological) and more contextual factors, most notably the flexible, hybrid and broad nature of IAMs as well as the pro-active character of the IAM community to enhance their policy relevance. We draw on the notion of institutional work to explain this success. In light of the urgency of responding to the climate crisis, we suggest that the IAM community may expand their scope of anticipated futures and consider engaging a wider range of publics and societal stakeholders beyond the science-policy interface. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/301813 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lisette van Beek, Maarten Hajer, Peter Pelzer, Detlef van Vuuren, Christophe Cassen. Anticipating futures through models: the rise of Integrated Assessment Modelling in the climate science-policy interface since 1970[J]. Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions,2020. |
APA | Lisette van Beek, Maarten Hajer, Peter Pelzer, Detlef van Vuuren, Christophe Cassen.(2020).Anticipating futures through models: the rise of Integrated Assessment Modelling in the climate science-policy interface since 1970.Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions. |
MLA | Lisette van Beek, Maarten Hajer, Peter Pelzer, Detlef van Vuuren, Christophe Cassen."Anticipating futures through models: the rise of Integrated Assessment Modelling in the climate science-policy interface since 1970".Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions (2020). |
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