Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s10584-018-2247-6 |
Combining probability with qualitative degree-of-certainty metrics in assessment | |
Helgeson, Casey1; Bradley, Richard2,3; Hill, Brian4 | |
2018-08-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE
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ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 149页码:517-525 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; England; France |
英文摘要 | Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) employ an evolving framework of calibrated language for assessing and communicating degrees of certainty in findings. A persistent challenge for this framework has been ambiguity in the relationship between multiple degree-of-certainty metrics. We aim to clarify the relationship between the likelihood and confidence metrics used in the Fifth Assessment Report (2013), with benefits for mathematical consistency among multiple findings and for usability in downstream modeling and decision analysis. We discuss how our proposal meshes with current and proposed practice in IPCC uncertainty assessment. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000443398900017 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; EXPERT JUDGMENT ; UNCERTAINTY ; CONFIDENCE ; GUIDANCE |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/30158 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Penn State Univ, Earth & Environm Syst Inst, 2217 Earth & Engn Sci Bldg, University Pk, PA 16802 USA; 2.London Sch Econ, Dept Philosophy Log & Sci Method, Lakatos Bldg,Houghton St, London WC2A 2AE, England; 3.London Sch Econ, CPNSS, Lakatos Bldg,Houghton St, London WC2A 2AE, England; 4.HEC Paris, CNRS, GREGHEC, 1 Rue Liberat, F-78351 Jouy En Josas, France |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Helgeson, Casey,Bradley, Richard,Hill, Brian. Combining probability with qualitative degree-of-certainty metrics in assessment[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2018,149:517-525. |
APA | Helgeson, Casey,Bradley, Richard,&Hill, Brian.(2018).Combining probability with qualitative degree-of-certainty metrics in assessment.CLIMATIC CHANGE,149,517-525. |
MLA | Helgeson, Casey,et al."Combining probability with qualitative degree-of-certainty metrics in assessment".CLIMATIC CHANGE 149(2018):517-525. |
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