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DOI | 10.1007/s10584-017-1907-2 |
Precipitation concentration index management by adaptive neuro-fuzzy methodology | |
Petkovic, Dalibor1; Gocic, Milan2; Trajkovic, Slavisa2; Milovancevic, Milos3; Sevic, Dragoljub4 | |
2017-04-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE |
ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 141期号:4 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Serbia |
英文摘要 | This paper reconsiders the precipitation concentration index (PCI) in Serbia using precipitation measurements such as the mean winter precipitation amount, annual total precipitation, mean summer precipitation amount, mean spring precipitation amount, mean autumn precipitation amount and the mean of precipitation for the vegetation period (April-September). Potentials for further improvement of PCI prediction lie in the improvement of current prediction strategies. One of the options is the introduction of model predictive control. To manage the PCI, it is good to select factors or parameters that are the most important for PCI estimation and prediction, i.e. to conduct variable selection procedure. In the present study, a regression based on the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is applied for selection of the most influential PCI inputs based on the precipitation measurements. The effectiveness of the proposed strategy is verified according to the simulation results. The results show that the mean autumn precipitation amount is the most influential for PCI prediction and estimation and could be used for the simplification of predictive methods to avoid multiple input variables. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000396826200005 |
WOS关键词 | HYDROLOGICAL TIME-SERIES ; INFERENCE SYSTEM ANFIS ; VARIABLE SELECTION ; TEMPORAL VARIABILITY ; SPATIAL-DISTRIBUTION ; COMPUTING TECHNIQUE ; RIVER-BASIN ; NETWORKS ; CHINA ; PREDICTION |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/30150 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Nis, Pedag Fac Vranje, Partizanska 14, Vranje 17500, Serbia; 2.Univ Nis, Fac Civil Engn & Architecture, Aleksandra Medvedeva 14, Nish 18000, Serbia; 3.Univ Nis, Fac Mech Engn, Aleksandra Medvedeva 14, Nish 18000, Serbia; 4.Univ Novi Sad, Fac Tech Sci, Novi Sad, Serbia |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Petkovic, Dalibor,Gocic, Milan,Trajkovic, Slavisa,et al. Precipitation concentration index management by adaptive neuro-fuzzy methodology[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2017,141(4). |
APA | Petkovic, Dalibor,Gocic, Milan,Trajkovic, Slavisa,Milovancevic, Milos,&Sevic, Dragoljub.(2017).Precipitation concentration index management by adaptive neuro-fuzzy methodology.CLIMATIC CHANGE,141(4). |
MLA | Petkovic, Dalibor,et al."Precipitation concentration index management by adaptive neuro-fuzzy methodology".CLIMATIC CHANGE 141.4(2017). |
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