Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s10584-016-1773-3 |
A comparison of changes in river runoff from multiple global and catchment-scale hydrological models under global warming scenarios of 1 degrees C, 2 degrees C and 3 degrees C | |
Gosling, Simon N.1; Zaherpour, Jamal1; Mount, Nick J.1; Hattermann, Fred F.2; Dankers, Rutger3; Arheimer, Berit4; Breuer, Lutz5,6; Ding, Jie7,8; Haddeland, Ingjerd9; Kumar, Rohini10; Kundu, Dipangkar11; Liu, Junguo7,12; van Griensven, Ann13,14; Veldkamp, Ted I. E.15; Vetter, Tobias2; Wang, Xiaoyan16; Zhang, Xinxin12 | |
2017-04-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE |
ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 141期号:3 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England; Germany; Sweden; Peoples R China; Norway; Australia; Belgium; Netherlands |
英文摘要 | We present one of the first climate change impact assessments on river runoff that utilises an ensemble of global hydrological models (Glob-HMs) and an ensemble of catchment-scale hydrological models (Cat-HMs), across multiple catchments: the upper Amazon, Darling, Ganges, Lena, upper Mississippi, upper Niger, Rhine and Tagus. Relative changes in simulated mean annual runoff (MAR) and four indicators of high and low extreme flows are compared between the two ensembles. The ensemble median values of changes in runoff with three different scenarios of global-mean warming (1, 2 and 3 degrees C above preindustrial levels) are generally similar between the two ensembles, although the ensemble spread is often larger for the Glob-HM ensemble. In addition the ensemble spread is normally larger than the difference between the two ensemble medians. Whilst we find compelling evidence for projected runoff changes for the Rhine (decrease), Tagus (decrease) and Lena (increase) with global warming, the sign and magnitude of change for the other catchments is unclear. Our model results highlight that for these three catchments in particular, global climate change mitigation, which limits global-mean temperature rise to below 2 degrees C above preindustrial levels, could avoid some of the hydrological hazards that could be seen with higher magnitudes of global warming. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000396824300015 |
WOS关键词 | WATER-QUALITY MODEL ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; SURFACE-WATER ; IMPACT ; UNCERTAINTY ; FLUXES ; REGIMES ; RHINE |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/30149 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Nottingham, Sch Geog, Nottingham NG7 2RD, England; 2.Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Telegrafenberg,A62, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany; 3.Met Off, Exeter, Devon, England; 4.Swedish Meteorol & Hydrol Inst, S-60176 Norrkoping, Sweden; 5.Justus Liebig Univ, Res Ctr Biosyst Land Use & Nutr iFZ, Inst Landscape Ecol & Resources Management ILR, Giessen, Germany; 6.Justus Liebig Univ, Ctr Int Dev & Environm Res ZEU, Giessen, Germany; 7.South Univ Sci & Technol China, Sch Environm Sci & Engn, Shenzhen 518055, Peoples R China; 8.Leibniz Hannover Univ, Inst Water Resources Management Hydrol & Agr Hydr, D-30167 Hannover, Germany; 9.Norwegian Water Resources & Energy Directorate, Oslo, Norway; 10.UFZ Helmholtz Ctr Environm Res, Leipzig, Germany; 11.Univ Sydney, Fac Agr & Environm, Dept Environm Sci, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia; 12.Beijing Forestry Univ, Sch Nat Conservat, Beijing 10083, Peoples R China; 13.Vrije Univ Brussel, Dept Hydrol & Hydraul Engn, Brussels, Belgium; 14.UNESCO, IHE Inst Water Educ, Delft, Netherlands; 15.Vrije Univ, Inst Environm Studies IVM, Amsterdam, Netherlands; 16.Hohai Univ, Ctr Global Change & Water Cycle, State Key Lab Hydrol Water Resources & Hydraul En, Nanjing 210098, Jiangsu, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Gosling, Simon N.,Zaherpour, Jamal,Mount, Nick J.,et al. A comparison of changes in river runoff from multiple global and catchment-scale hydrological models under global warming scenarios of 1 degrees C, 2 degrees C and 3 degrees C[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2017,141(3). |
APA | Gosling, Simon N..,Zaherpour, Jamal.,Mount, Nick J..,Hattermann, Fred F..,Dankers, Rutger.,...&Zhang, Xinxin.(2017).A comparison of changes in river runoff from multiple global and catchment-scale hydrological models under global warming scenarios of 1 degrees C, 2 degrees C and 3 degrees C.CLIMATIC CHANGE,141(3). |
MLA | Gosling, Simon N.,et al."A comparison of changes in river runoff from multiple global and catchment-scale hydrological models under global warming scenarios of 1 degrees C, 2 degrees C and 3 degrees C".CLIMATIC CHANGE 141.3(2017). |
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