Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s10584-017-2009-x |
The Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE): a synthesis | |
O&1; 39;Neill, Brian C.2 | |
2018-02-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE |
ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 146页码:287-301 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | Understanding how impacts may differ across alternative levels of future climate change is necessary to inform mitigation and adaptation measures. The Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE) project assesses the differences in impacts between two specific climate futures: a higher emissions future with global average temperature increasing about 3.7 A degrees C above pre-industrial levels toward the end of the century and a moderate emissions future with global average warming of about 2.5 A degrees C. BRACE studies in this special issue quantify avoided impacts on physical, managed, and societal systems in terms of extreme events, health, agriculture, and tropical cyclones. Here we describe the conceptual framework and design of BRACE and synthesize its results. Methodologically, the project combines climate modeling, statistical analysis, and impact assessment and draws heavily on large ensembles using the Community Earth System Model. It addresses uncertainty in future societal change by employing two pathways for future socioeconomic development. Results show that the benefits of reduced climate change within this framework vary substantially across types of impacts. In many cases, especially related to extreme heat events, there are substantial benefits to mitigation. The benefits for some heat extremes are statistically significant in some regions as early as the 2020s and are widespread by mid-century. Benefits are more modest for agriculture and exposure to some health risks. Benefits are negative for agriculture when CO2 fertilization is incorporated. For several societal impacts, the effect on outcomes of alternative future societal development pathways is substantially larger than the effect of the two climate scenarios. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000425120000002 |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/30120 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA; 2.Sun Yat Sen Univ, Sch Atmospher Sci, Guangzhou, Guangdong, Peoples R China; 3.Texas A&M Univ, College Stn, TX USA; 4.Colorado State Univ, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA; 5.SLevis Consulting, San Diego, CA USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | O&,39;Neill, Brian C.. The Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE): a synthesis[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2018,146:287-301. |
APA | O&,&39;Neill, Brian C..(2018).The Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE): a synthesis.CLIMATIC CHANGE,146,287-301. |
MLA | O&,et al."The Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE): a synthesis".CLIMATIC CHANGE 146(2018):287-301. |
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