Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s10584-017-2115-9 |
The impacts avoided with a 1.5 A degrees C climate target: a global and regional assessment | |
Arnell, Nigel W.1,2; Lowe, Jason A.3,4; Lloyd-Hughes, Ben5; Osborn, Timothy J.6 | |
2018-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE |
ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 147页码:61-76 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England |
英文摘要 | The 2015 Paris Agreement commits countries to pursue efforts to limit the increase in global mean temperature to 1.5 A degrees C above pre-industrial levels. We assess the consequences of achieving this target in 2100 for the impacts that are avoided, using several indicators of impact (exposure to drought, river flooding, heat waves and demands for heating and cooling energy). The proportion of impacts that are avoided is not simply equal to the proportional reduction in temperature. At the global scale, the median proportion of projected impacts avoided by the 1.5 A degrees C target relative to a rise of 4 A degrees C ranges between 62 and 95% across sectors: the greatest reduction is for heat wave impacts. The 1.5 A degrees C target results in impacts that would be between 27 and 62% lower than with the 2 A degrees C target. For each indicator, there are differences in the proportions of impacts avoided between regions depending on exposure and the regional changes in climate (particularly precipitation). Uncertainty in the proportion of impacts that are avoided for a specific sector depends on the range in the shape of the relationship between global temperature change and impact, and this varies between sectors. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000425959700006 |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/30109 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Reading, Berks, England; 2.Univ Reading, Walker Inst, Reading, Berks, England; 3.Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England; 4.Univ Leeds, Priestley Ctr, Leeds, W Yorkshire, England; 5.Univ Reading, Inst Environm Analyt, Reading, Berks, England; 6.Univ East Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Climat Res Unit, Norwich, Norfolk, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Arnell, Nigel W.,Lowe, Jason A.,Lloyd-Hughes, Ben,et al. The impacts avoided with a 1.5 A degrees C climate target: a global and regional assessment[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2018,147:61-76. |
APA | Arnell, Nigel W.,Lowe, Jason A.,Lloyd-Hughes, Ben,&Osborn, Timothy J..(2018).The impacts avoided with a 1.5 A degrees C climate target: a global and regional assessment.CLIMATIC CHANGE,147,61-76. |
MLA | Arnell, Nigel W.,et al."The impacts avoided with a 1.5 A degrees C climate target: a global and regional assessment".CLIMATIC CHANGE 147(2018):61-76. |
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