Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s10584-017-1911-6 |
On the scaling of climate impact indicators with global mean temperature increase: a case study of terrestrial ecosystems and water resources | |
Tanaka, Akemi1; Takahashi, Kiyoshi2; Shiogama, Hideo3; Hanasaki, Naota3; Masaki, Yoshimitsu3; Ito, Akihiko3; Noda, Hibiki3; Hijioka, Yasuaki2; Emori, Seita3 | |
2017-04-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE |
ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 141期号:4 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Japan |
英文摘要 | We assessed whether the impacts of various increases in global mean temperature from preindustrial levels (Delta GMT) on terrestrial ecosystems and water resources could be approximated by linear scaling of the impacts of Delta GMT = 2 degrees C at global and large regional scales. Impacts on net primary production, CO2 emissions from biomass burning, soil erosion, and surface runoff calculated by impact model simulations driven by multiple climate scenarios were assessed for a Delta GMT range of 1.5-4 degrees C. The results showed that the linear scaling was tolerable for net primary production, biomass burning, and surface runoff for a global average. However, for regional averages, the linear scaling was unacceptable for net primary production and biomass burning as well as for soil erosion at around 3 degrees C in numerous regions around the world. The linear scaling was judged to be tolerable for surface runoff in most regions where the impacts of 2 degrees C were statistically significant, but there were large uncertainties in future changes in surface runoff in many regions. Exploring the applicability of linear scaling could help simplify and streamline climate-change impact assessments at various Delta GMTs. Our approach leaves room for refinement, and further investigation will be worthwhile. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000396826200013 |
WOS关键词 | MODEL |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/30094 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Natl Agr & Food Res Org, Hokkaido Agr Res Ctr, 1 Hitsujigaoka, Sapporo, Hokkaido 0628555, Japan; 2.Natl Inst Environm Studies, Ctr Social & Environm Syst Res, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058506, Japan; 3.Natl Inst Environm Studies, Ctr Global Environm Res, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058506, Japan |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Tanaka, Akemi,Takahashi, Kiyoshi,Shiogama, Hideo,et al. On the scaling of climate impact indicators with global mean temperature increase: a case study of terrestrial ecosystems and water resources[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2017,141(4). |
APA | Tanaka, Akemi.,Takahashi, Kiyoshi.,Shiogama, Hideo.,Hanasaki, Naota.,Masaki, Yoshimitsu.,...&Emori, Seita.(2017).On the scaling of climate impact indicators with global mean temperature increase: a case study of terrestrial ecosystems and water resources.CLIMATIC CHANGE,141(4). |
MLA | Tanaka, Akemi,et al."On the scaling of climate impact indicators with global mean temperature increase: a case study of terrestrial ecosystems and water resources".CLIMATIC CHANGE 141.4(2017). |
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