Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s10584-018-2306-z |
Quantifying sources of uncertainty in projected wheat yield changes under climate change in eastern Australia | |
Wang, Bin1; Liu, De Li1,2,3; Waters, Cathy4; Yu, Qiang5,6,7 | |
2018-11-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE |
ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 151期号:2页码:259-273 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Australia; Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | Future climate projections and impact analyses are pivotal to evaluate the potential change in crop yield under climate change. Impact assessment of climate change is also essential to prepare and implement adaptation measures for farmers and policymakers. However, there are uncertainties associated with climate change impact assessment when combining crop models and climate models under different emission scenarios. This study quantifies the various sources of uncertainty associated with future climate change effects on wheat productivity at six representative sites covering dry and wet environments in Australia based on 12 soil types and 12 nitrogen application rates using one crop model driven by 28 global climate models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) at near future period 2021-2060 and far future period 2061-2100. We used the analysis of variance (ANOVA) to quantify the sources of uncertainty in wheat yield change. Our results indicated that GCM uncertainty largely dominated over RCPs, nitrogen rates, and soils for the projections of wheat yield at drier locations. However, at wetter sites, the largest share of uncertainty was nitrogen, followed by GCMs, soils, and RCPs. In addition, the soil types at two northern sites in the study area had greater effects on yield change uncertainty probably due to the interaction effect of seasonal rainfall and soil water storage capacity. We concluded that the relative contributions of different uncertainty sources are dependent on climatic location. Understanding the share of uncertainty in climate impact assessment is important for model choice and will provide a basis for producing more reliable impact assessment. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000451021600012 |
WOS关键词 | MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE PROJECTIONS ; WATER-USE EFFICIENCY ; CHANGE IMPACTS ; MODEL STRUCTURE ; FUTURE CLIMATE ; ADAPTATION OPTIONS ; CHANGE SCENARIOS ; PHENOLOGY ; SYSTEMS ; TRENDS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/30071 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.NSW Dept Primary Ind, Wagga Wagga Agr Inst, Wagga Wagga, NSW 2650, Australia; 2.Univ New South Wales, Climate Change Res Ctr, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia; 3.Univ New South Wales, ARC Ctr Excellence Climate Extremes, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia; 4.NSW Dept Primary Ind, Orange Agr Inst, Orange, NSW 2800, Australia; 5.Univ Technol Sydney, Sch Life Sci, Fac Sci, POB 123,Broadway, Sydney, NSW 2007, Australia; 6.Northwest A&F Univ, State Key Lab Soil Eros & Dryland Farming Loess P, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China; 7.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wang, Bin,Liu, De Li,Waters, Cathy,et al. Quantifying sources of uncertainty in projected wheat yield changes under climate change in eastern Australia[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2018,151(2):259-273. |
APA | Wang, Bin,Liu, De Li,Waters, Cathy,&Yu, Qiang.(2018).Quantifying sources of uncertainty in projected wheat yield changes under climate change in eastern Australia.CLIMATIC CHANGE,151(2),259-273. |
MLA | Wang, Bin,et al."Quantifying sources of uncertainty in projected wheat yield changes under climate change in eastern Australia".CLIMATIC CHANGE 151.2(2018):259-273. |
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